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📊 Prediction Accuracy
53.3%
Within 2 Positions
1.9
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1California Poly Maritime Academy1.75+1.85vs Predicted
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2University of California at Berkeley0.71+3.18vs Predicted
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3Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.02+4.45vs Predicted
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4University of California at Santa Cruz0.48+1.95vs Predicted
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5Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.06+2.73vs Predicted
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6California State University Channel Islands0.42+0.13vs Predicted
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7University of California at San Diego0.18-0.14vs Predicted
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8Arizona State University0.32-1.54vs Predicted
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9San Diego State University0.17-2.16vs Predicted
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10University of California at Irvine-0.66-0.32vs Predicted
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11University of California at Berkeley-0.50-1.88vs Predicted
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12University of California at Davis-0.72-2.02vs Predicted
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13University of California at Los Angeles-1.38-1.24vs Predicted
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14University of California at Santa Barbara-1.23-2.83vs Predicted
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15Santa Clara University-1.98-2.15vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.85California Poly Maritime Academy1.750.3%1st Place
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5.18University of California at Berkeley0.710.1%1st Place
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7.45Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.020.1%1st Place
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5.95University of California at Santa Cruz0.480.1%1st Place
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7.73Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.060.1%1st Place
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6.13California State University Channel Islands0.420.1%1st Place
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6.86University of California at San Diego0.180.1%1st Place
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6.46Arizona State University0.320.1%1st Place
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6.84San Diego State University0.170.1%1st Place
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9.68University of California at Irvine-0.660.0%1st Place
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9.12University of California at Berkeley-0.500.0%1st Place
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9.98University of California at Davis-0.720.0%1st Place
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11.76University of California at Los Angeles-1.380.0%1st Place
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11.17University of California at Santa Barbara-1.230.0%1st Place
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12.85Santa Clara University-1.980.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicholas Mueller | 32.3% | 23.6% | 15.2% | 10.2% | 7.2% | 4.6% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nate Ingebritson | 10.2% | 13.6% | 12.5% | 11.8% | 11.3% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Florence Duff | 5.8% | 5.0% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 9.1% | 8.9% | 8.9% | 7.1% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 0.7% |
| George Soliman | 8.4% | 10.3% | 9.1% | 11.0% | 10.9% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Robert Bloomfield | 5.6% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 8.4% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 10.1% | 9.8% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 0.7% |
| Sterling Maggard | 7.3% | 9.5% | 8.1% | 10.1% | 10.6% | 10.0% | 10.7% | 7.7% | 8.7% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Brendan O'Connor | 8.1% | 5.4% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 8.9% | 9.5% | 9.3% | 9.8% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 4.1% | 1.3% | 0.5% |
| Matt Grimsley | 6.7% | 7.7% | 11.0% | 9.5% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 9.5% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 0.9% | 0.5% |
| Christopher Hopkins | 5.5% | 6.1% | 8.8% | 9.5% | 9.1% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 10.1% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 5.2% | 3.3% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| Nikita Swatek | 2.3% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 7.3% | 4.4% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 9.6% | 13.4% | 12.0% | 9.9% | 5.4% |
| Alyssa Cunningham Barkus | 2.7% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 8.9% | 8.9% | 9.3% | 10.8% | 10.0% | 8.0% | 4.8% |
| Nathaniel Holden | 2.2% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 9.3% | 11.0% | 12.3% | 12.6% | 12.0% | 5.8% |
| Conrad Kistler | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 9.5% | 16.1% | 20.1% | 21.6% |
| Jonah Eckerman | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 11.8% | 13.8% | 18.8% | 15.1% |
| Chase VanDerveer | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 10.0% | 18.3% | 44.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.