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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1California Poly Maritime Academy1.75+1.83vs Predicted
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2University of California at Berkeley0.71+3.16vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Cruz0.48+2.84vs Predicted
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4Arizona State University0.32+2.40vs Predicted
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5University of California at San Diego0.18+1.94vs Predicted
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6University of California at Irvine-0.66+3.63vs Predicted
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7California State University Channel Islands0.42-0.89vs Predicted
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8San Diego State University0.17-1.05vs Predicted
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9University of California at Los Angeles-1.38+2.62vs Predicted
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10Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.06-2.30vs Predicted
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11Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.02-3.42vs Predicted
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12University of California at Berkeley-0.50-2.71vs Predicted
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13University of California at Santa Barbara-1.23-1.61vs Predicted
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14University of California at Davis-0.72-4.31vs Predicted
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15Santa Clara University-1.98-2.12vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.83California Poly Maritime Academy1.750.3%1st Place
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5.16University of California at Berkeley0.710.1%1st Place
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5.84University of California at Santa Cruz0.480.1%1st Place
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6.4Arizona State University0.320.1%1st Place
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6.94University of California at San Diego0.180.1%1st Place
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9.63University of California at Irvine-0.660.0%1st Place
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6.11California State University Channel Islands0.420.1%1st Place
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6.95San Diego State University0.170.1%1st Place
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11.62University of California at Los Angeles-1.380.0%1st Place
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7.7Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.060.0%1st Place
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7.58Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.020.0%1st Place
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9.29University of California at Berkeley-0.500.0%1st Place
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11.39University of California at Santa Barbara-1.230.0%1st Place
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9.69University of California at Davis-0.720.0%1st Place
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12.88Santa Clara University-1.980.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicholas Mueller | 32.6% | 23.6% | 14.4% | 11.0% | 7.1% | 4.9% | 3.1% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nate Ingebritson | 10.7% | 12.9% | 12.6% | 11.7% | 10.9% | 8.8% | 9.6% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| George Soliman | 9.4% | 7.5% | 13.4% | 9.0% | 9.6% | 10.0% | 8.4% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Matt Grimsley | 6.7% | 8.3% | 9.2% | 10.4% | 10.1% | 7.5% | 9.1% | 9.3% | 8.4% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 0.7% | 0.6% |
| Brendan O'Connor | 6.8% | 8.3% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 9.4% | 8.7% | 10.4% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 2.0% | 0.3% |
| Nikita Swatek | 2.3% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 9.8% | 13.1% | 12.6% | 10.3% | 4.1% |
| Sterling Maggard | 9.3% | 7.5% | 9.5% | 10.3% | 8.5% | 11.1% | 10.4% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Christopher Hopkins | 6.1% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 8.9% | 9.5% | 8.1% | 9.1% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 3.1% | 2.0% | 0.9% |
| Conrad Kistler | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 2.2% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 10.1% | 14.4% | 21.4% | 18.2% |
| Robert Bloomfield | 4.2% | 4.7% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 8.9% | 8.4% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 8.7% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 3.1% | 1.8% |
| Florence Duff | 4.3% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 8.7% | 6.7% | 9.2% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 5.0% | 3.0% | 2.0% |
| Alyssa Cunningham Barkus | 3.0% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 7.4% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 10.9% | 13.2% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 3.8% |
| Jonah Eckerman | 1.0% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 7.1% | 9.7% | 15.1% | 19.8% | 17.9% |
| Nathaniel Holden | 1.7% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 10.5% | 10.5% | 13.6% | 10.8% | 5.0% |
| Chase VanDerveer | 0.7% | 0.5% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 10.5% | 17.0% | 45.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.