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📊 Prediction Accuracy
53.3%
Within 2 Positions
1.8
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Irvine0.27+3.69vs Predicted
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2University of California at San Diego-0.10+3.60vs Predicted
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3University of California at Berkeley0.20+1.87vs Predicted
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4San Diego State University-0.19+2.02vs Predicted
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5Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.49-0.71vs Predicted
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6California Poly Maritime Academy-0.07-0.34vs Predicted
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7University of California at Santa Cruz0.54-2.95vs Predicted
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8University of California at Santa Barbara-1.32+1.35vs Predicted
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9Santa Clara University-1.12-0.34vs Predicted
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10Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.68+0.41vs Predicted
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11California State University Channel Islands-2.04+0.34vs Predicted
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12University of California at Davis-1.89-0.85vs Predicted
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13University of California at Berkeley-1.60-2.68vs Predicted
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14University of California at Los Angeles-2.06-2.65vs Predicted
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15Arizona State University-2.45-2.75vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.69University of California at Irvine0.270.1%1st Place
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5.6University of California at San Diego-0.100.1%1st Place
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4.87University of California at Berkeley0.200.1%1st Place
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6.02San Diego State University-0.190.1%1st Place
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4.29Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.490.2%1st Place
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5.66California Poly Maritime Academy-0.070.1%1st Place
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4.05University of California at Santa Cruz0.540.2%1st Place
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9.35University of California at Santa Barbara-1.320.0%1st Place
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8.66Santa Clara University-1.120.0%1st Place
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10.41Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.680.0%1st Place
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11.34California State University Channel Islands-2.040.0%1st Place
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11.15University of California at Davis-1.890.0%1st Place
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10.32University of California at Berkeley-1.600.0%1st Place
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11.35University of California at Los Angeles-2.060.0%1st Place
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12.25Arizona State University-2.450.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arin Bekem | 14.6% | 13.4% | 11.6% | 12.4% | 11.3% | 10.5% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 4.6% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Mitchel Sanford | 8.4% | 10.5% | 11.1% | 10.8% | 10.6% | 10.8% | 9.6% | 9.0% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Wilton Lawton | 12.9% | 12.1% | 11.8% | 11.1% | 12.5% | 10.5% | 9.3% | 7.9% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Owen Gormely | 9.1% | 7.8% | 9.6% | 9.5% | 9.2% | 9.5% | 11.1% | 10.9% | 7.7% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 2.7% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Jack Kisling | 15.6% | 15.0% | 14.1% | 13.9% | 10.8% | 9.4% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 3.6% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Sam Jennings | 9.2% | 9.3% | 9.2% | 10.5% | 11.9% | 10.6% | 10.8% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 5.9% | 3.0% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Blake Roberts | 17.5% | 17.6% | 14.0% | 13.3% | 10.9% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 3.5% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Shand | 2.5% | 2.4% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 9.2% | 13.0% | 10.5% | 11.1% | 10.6% | 7.0% | 3.1% |
| Paul Trudell | 2.8% | 2.8% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 11.7% | 10.8% | 11.1% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 4.8% | 1.5% |
| Sienna Stromberg | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 10.3% | 13.3% | 13.9% | 10.6% | 8.7% |
| Seraphee de Labaca | 1.1% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 11.8% | 12.6% | 16.9% | 16.9% |
| Luke Melvin | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 2.7% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 11.6% | 14.4% | 12.9% | 13.6% | 14.6% |
| Bianca Weber | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 7.7% | 10.4% | 11.3% | 14.1% | 11.8% | 11.5% | 7.7% |
| Orion Spatafora | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 9.0% | 10.3% | 10.8% | 13.2% | 17.2% | 16.1% |
| Mason Norwood | 0.7% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.7% | 5.5% | 8.9% | 7.9% | 13.2% | 16.8% | 31.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.