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📊 Prediction Accuracy
46.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Irvine0.27+3.74vs Predicted
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2California Poly Maritime Academy-0.07+3.57vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Cruz0.54+1.03vs Predicted
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4Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.49+0.20vs Predicted
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5San Diego State University-0.19+1.10vs Predicted
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6University of California at Berkeley0.20-1.10vs Predicted
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7University of California at Davis-1.89+3.85vs Predicted
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8University of California at Berkeley-1.60+2.12vs Predicted
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9University of California at San Diego-0.10-3.34vs Predicted
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10Santa Clara University-1.12-1.21vs Predicted
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11Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.68-0.62vs Predicted
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12California State University Channel Islands-2.04-0.44vs Predicted
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13University of California at Santa Barbara-1.32-3.50vs Predicted
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14University of California at Los Angeles-2.06-2.62vs Predicted
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15Arizona State University-2.45-2.78vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.74University of California at Irvine0.270.1%1st Place
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5.57California Poly Maritime Academy-0.070.1%1st Place
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4.03University of California at Santa Cruz0.540.2%1st Place
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4.2Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.490.2%1st Place
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6.1San Diego State University-0.190.1%1st Place
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4.9University of California at Berkeley0.200.1%1st Place
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10.85University of California at Davis-1.890.0%1st Place
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10.12University of California at Berkeley-1.600.0%1st Place
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5.66University of California at San Diego-0.100.1%1st Place
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8.79Santa Clara University-1.120.0%1st Place
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10.38Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.680.0%1st Place
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11.56California State University Channel Islands-2.040.0%1st Place
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9.5University of California at Santa Barbara-1.320.0%1st Place
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11.38University of California at Los Angeles-2.060.0%1st Place
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12.22Arizona State University-2.450.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arin Bekem | 13.2% | 13.5% | 13.3% | 11.6% | 11.9% | 8.9% | 9.7% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 2.7% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Sam Jennings | 8.2% | 11.4% | 12.6% | 8.5% | 9.8% | 11.3% | 10.0% | 8.9% | 7.5% | 5.6% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Blake Roberts | 17.9% | 15.5% | 15.1% | 12.5% | 11.8% | 9.5% | 7.3% | 5.1% | 3.2% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jack Kisling | 17.8% | 15.7% | 12.4% | 12.7% | 11.1% | 10.6% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 3.6% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Owen Gormely | 8.5% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 9.4% | 10.0% | 9.8% | 10.6% | 11.7% | 8.5% | 6.5% | 4.5% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Wilton Lawton | 12.4% | 10.1% | 13.0% | 14.0% | 11.8% | 9.5% | 9.5% | 8.3% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Luke Melvin | 2.2% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 6.7% | 10.0% | 10.3% | 12.1% | 13.3% | 14.7% | 12.0% |
| Bianca Weber | 2.1% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 7.1% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 11.9% | 13.0% | 12.5% | 10.2% | 6.9% |
| Mitchel Sanford | 7.9% | 9.6% | 9.8% | 11.4% | 12.4% | 9.4% | 11.1% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 4.0% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Paul Trudell | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 9.0% | 10.8% | 11.2% | 10.9% | 10.1% | 7.2% | 5.1% | 2.4% |
| Sienna Stromberg | 1.5% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 8.4% | 11.9% | 12.9% | 11.0% | 12.5% | 9.0% |
| Seraphee de Labaca | 1.5% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 3.1% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 7.7% | 11.0% | 10.8% | 15.0% | 16.1% | 18.1% |
| Nicholas Shand | 1.9% | 2.8% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 9.1% | 13.0% | 11.2% | 12.8% | 10.8% | 6.5% | 4.0% |
| Orion Spatafora | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 9.0% | 11.8% | 13.5% | 16.5% | 16.8% |
| Mason Norwood | 0.6% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 7.8% | 9.1% | 12.2% | 17.4% | 30.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.