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📊 Prediction Accuracy
60.0%
Within 2 Positions
1.8
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Irvine0.27+3.73vs Predicted
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2University of California at San Diego-0.10+3.64vs Predicted
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3Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.49+1.18vs Predicted
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4San Diego State University-0.19+1.99vs Predicted
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5University of California at Santa Cruz0.54-0.83vs Predicted
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6University of California at Berkeley0.20-1.09vs Predicted
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7University of California at Santa Barbara-1.32+2.29vs Predicted
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8California Poly Maritime Academy-0.07-2.34vs Predicted
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9Santa Clara University-1.12-0.33vs Predicted
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10Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.68+0.41vs Predicted
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11University of California at Berkeley-1.60-0.90vs Predicted
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12University of California at Davis-1.89-0.84vs Predicted
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13Arizona State University-2.45-0.58vs Predicted
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14California State University Channel Islands-2.04-2.68vs Predicted
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15University of California at Los Angeles-2.06-3.64vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.73University of California at Irvine0.270.1%1st Place
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5.64University of California at San Diego-0.100.1%1st Place
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4.18Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.490.2%1st Place
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5.99San Diego State University-0.190.1%1st Place
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4.17University of California at Santa Cruz0.540.2%1st Place
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4.91University of California at Berkeley0.200.1%1st Place
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9.29University of California at Santa Barbara-1.320.0%1st Place
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5.66California Poly Maritime Academy-0.070.1%1st Place
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8.67Santa Clara University-1.120.0%1st Place
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10.41Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.680.0%1st Place
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10.1University of California at Berkeley-1.600.0%1st Place
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11.16University of California at Davis-1.890.0%1st Place
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12.42Arizona State University-2.450.0%1st Place
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11.32California State University Channel Islands-2.040.0%1st Place
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11.36University of California at Los Angeles-2.060.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arin Bekem | 14.2% | 13.6% | 12.1% | 11.7% | 10.8% | 10.3% | 9.5% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Mitchel Sanford | 8.4% | 9.7% | 13.0% | 8.7% | 10.7% | 9.3% | 11.1% | 9.6% | 7.6% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 1.9% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Jack Kisling | 16.8% | 14.4% | 14.3% | 13.0% | 12.4% | 9.4% | 8.3% | 5.4% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Owen Gormely | 9.2% | 9.2% | 8.4% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 10.8% | 10.7% | 10.0% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Blake Roberts | 17.0% | 15.4% | 14.8% | 12.4% | 11.9% | 9.6% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Wilton Lawton | 11.6% | 12.5% | 11.1% | 13.0% | 12.4% | 10.5% | 9.6% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 2.9% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Shand | 3.3% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 6.1% | 8.6% | 10.5% | 11.1% | 10.8% | 9.4% | 10.5% | 7.8% | 3.8% |
| Sam Jennings | 9.5% | 9.7% | 9.2% | 12.7% | 10.0% | 8.2% | 10.2% | 9.8% | 8.4% | 6.0% | 3.5% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Paul Trudell | 2.4% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 10.8% | 11.7% | 9.1% | 11.7% | 9.7% | 7.3% | 4.6% | 1.4% |
| Sienna Stromberg | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 8.3% | 9.3% | 11.3% | 12.9% | 13.5% | 11.1% | 8.3% |
| Bianca Weber | 2.0% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.7% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 9.4% | 12.2% | 12.8% | 11.6% | 10.1% | 7.5% |
| Luke Melvin | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 6.2% | 8.7% | 11.6% | 14.2% | 13.5% | 13.4% | 14.1% |
| Mason Norwood | 0.4% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 2.7% | 1.5% | 2.7% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 12.6% | 19.2% | 32.1% |
| Seraphee de Labaca | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 9.8% | 9.1% | 12.0% | 14.4% | 16.9% | 14.7% |
| Orion Spatafora | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 8.3% | 9.1% | 12.3% | 13.5% | 15.5% | 18.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.