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📊 Prediction Accuracy
66.7%
Within 2 Positions
1.8
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Cruz0.54+3.06vs Predicted
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2University of California at San Diego-0.10+3.56vs Predicted
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3Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.49+1.12vs Predicted
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4San Diego State University-0.19+1.93vs Predicted
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5University of California at Irvine0.27-0.20vs Predicted
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6University of California at Berkeley0.20-1.12vs Predicted
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7Santa Clara University-1.12+1.64vs Predicted
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8California Poly Maritime Academy-0.07-2.38vs Predicted
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9Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.98+2.09vs Predicted
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10University of California at Santa Barbara-1.32-0.71vs Predicted
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11University of California at Davis-1.89-0.16vs Predicted
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12University of California at Berkeley-1.60-1.69vs Predicted
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13University of California at Los Angeles-2.06-1.57vs Predicted
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14Arizona State University-2.45-1.81vs Predicted
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15California State University Channel Islands-2.04-3.78vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.06University of California at Santa Cruz0.540.2%1st Place
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5.56University of California at San Diego-0.100.1%1st Place
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4.12Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.490.2%1st Place
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5.93San Diego State University-0.190.1%1st Place
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4.8University of California at Irvine0.270.1%1st Place
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4.88University of California at Berkeley0.200.1%1st Place
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8.64Santa Clara University-1.120.0%1st Place
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5.62California Poly Maritime Academy-0.070.1%1st Place
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11.09Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.980.0%1st Place
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9.29University of California at Santa Barbara-1.320.0%1st Place
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10.84University of California at Davis-1.890.0%1st Place
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10.31University of California at Berkeley-1.600.0%1st Place
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11.43University of California at Los Angeles-2.060.0%1st Place
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12.19Arizona State University-2.450.0%1st Place
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11.22California State University Channel Islands-2.040.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Roberts | 18.9% | 15.8% | 14.1% | 13.1% | 10.7% | 9.0% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mitchel Sanford | 8.5% | 10.0% | 12.2% | 10.0% | 9.9% | 11.0% | 10.6% | 9.8% | 7.3% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Jack Kisling | 17.2% | 14.7% | 14.3% | 13.8% | 10.6% | 11.2% | 7.6% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 2.1% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Owen Gormely | 8.6% | 9.7% | 9.6% | 8.4% | 9.7% | 9.7% | 10.5% | 9.7% | 9.1% | 7.5% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Arin Bekem | 12.5% | 12.2% | 13.2% | 11.1% | 12.6% | 11.9% | 9.3% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 2.0% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Wilton Lawton | 11.7% | 12.5% | 11.0% | 13.9% | 11.1% | 11.8% | 8.8% | 7.7% | 5.5% | 3.3% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Paul Trudell | 3.7% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 7.7% | 10.2% | 11.1% | 10.4% | 9.9% | 10.8% | 7.5% | 4.8% | 1.7% |
| Sam Jennings | 9.5% | 10.3% | 9.6% | 10.5% | 11.7% | 8.8% | 9.3% | 9.1% | 9.6% | 6.4% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Samantha Katz | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 11.0% | 13.5% | 15.2% | 13.7% | 12.3% |
| Nicholas Shand | 2.5% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 6.7% | 8.9% | 9.9% | 11.2% | 12.9% | 10.4% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 3.3% |
| Luke Melvin | 1.3% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 9.0% | 10.2% | 11.3% | 13.1% | 13.2% | 13.6% |
| Bianca Weber | 1.7% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 10.1% | 12.1% | 14.2% | 11.3% | 10.6% | 7.7% |
| Orion Spatafora | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 7.1% | 10.6% | 11.2% | 15.1% | 16.1% | 17.0% |
| Mason Norwood | 0.8% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 9.6% | 11.6% | 17.1% | 29.4% |
| Seraphee de Labaca | 1.3% | 1.0% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 10.3% | 11.3% | 14.8% | 16.0% | 15.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.