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📊 Prediction Accuracy
60.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.40+1.63vs Predicted
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2University of California at Irvine0.27+2.80vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Cruz0.54+1.24vs Predicted
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4University of California at Davis-1.89+6.84vs Predicted
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5San Diego State University-0.19+1.17vs Predicted
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6California Poly Maritime Academy-0.07-0.19vs Predicted
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7University of California at San Diego-0.10-1.19vs Predicted
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8University of California at Berkeley-1.60+2.13vs Predicted
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9University of California at Los Angeles-2.06+2.34vs Predicted
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10Santa Clara University-1.12-1.19vs Predicted
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11University of California at Santa Barbara-1.32-1.68vs Predicted
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12Arizona State University-2.45+0.41vs Predicted
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13California State University Channel Islands-2.04-1.54vs Predicted
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14Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.98-2.90vs Predicted
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15University of California at Berkeley0.20-9.89vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.63Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.400.3%1st Place
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4.8University of California at Irvine0.270.1%1st Place
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4.24University of California at Santa Cruz0.540.1%1st Place
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10.84University of California at Davis-1.890.0%1st Place
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6.17San Diego State University-0.190.1%1st Place
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5.81California Poly Maritime Academy-0.070.1%1st Place
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5.81University of California at San Diego-0.100.1%1st Place
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10.13University of California at Berkeley-1.600.0%1st Place
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11.34University of California at Los Angeles-2.060.0%1st Place
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8.81Santa Clara University-1.120.0%1st Place
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9.32University of California at Santa Barbara-1.320.0%1st Place
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12.41Arizona State University-2.450.0%1st Place
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11.46California State University Channel Islands-2.040.0%1st Place
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11.1Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.980.0%1st Place
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5.11University of California at Berkeley0.200.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Headington | 34.6% | 24.4% | 14.7% | 11.5% | 6.2% | 4.3% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Arin Bekem | 10.4% | 12.4% | 15.2% | 12.4% | 11.7% | 10.8% | 9.3% | 7.3% | 5.3% | 3.2% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Blake Roberts | 14.2% | 13.0% | 17.3% | 14.2% | 12.5% | 10.0% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Luke Melvin | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 10.0% | 10.1% | 12.6% | 11.5% | 14.0% | 12.3% |
| Owen Gormely | 6.6% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 8.9% | 11.7% | 9.8% | 12.4% | 11.9% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 4.7% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Sam Jennings | 6.7% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 12.2% | 11.1% | 13.0% | 11.6% | 9.3% | 8.1% | 5.6% | 3.5% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Mitchel Sanford | 8.3% | 8.6% | 8.7% | 10.6% | 11.0% | 12.7% | 11.0% | 8.5% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 3.3% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Bianca Weber | 1.7% | 1.1% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 4.8% | 9.1% | 7.6% | 9.2% | 12.6% | 11.0% | 13.4% | 10.3% | 6.3% |
| Orion Spatafora | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 5.0% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 11.3% | 12.7% | 14.2% | 14.9% | 14.8% |
| Paul Trudell | 1.9% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 4.3% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 7.5% | 9.6% | 10.4% | 12.6% | 12.8% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 4.1% | 2.1% |
| Nicholas Shand | 1.8% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 10.0% | 12.2% | 11.6% | 10.2% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 3.8% |
| Mason Norwood | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 7.9% | 9.5% | 14.3% | 16.8% | 31.1% |
| Seraphee de Labaca | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 8.6% | 13.2% | 14.7% | 16.2% | 16.7% |
| Samantha Katz | 0.7% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 10.1% | 14.8% | 11.3% | 15.7% | 12.8% |
| Wilton Lawton | 9.7% | 12.4% | 11.5% | 12.0% | 11.0% | 11.3% | 11.0% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.