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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
21
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1California State University Channel Islands0.42+4.91vs Predicted
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2Arizona State University0.64+3.26vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Cruz0.48+2.63vs Predicted
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4University of California at Irvine-0.66+5.58vs Predicted
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5University of Washington-0.48+3.99vs Predicted
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6San Diego State University1.23-2.26vs Predicted
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7University of California at Santa Cruz0.65-1.89vs Predicted
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8University of California at Santa Cruz0.06-1.17vs Predicted
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9Arizona State University-1.16+2.38vs Predicted
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10University of California at Los Angeles-2.58+6.30vs Predicted
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11University of California at Davis-0.72-1.25vs Predicted
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12San Diego State University-1.45+0.60vs Predicted
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13University of California at Los Angeles-1.38-0.63vs Predicted
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14California State University Channel Islands-2.78+2.99vs Predicted
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15University of California at Irvine-1.70-1.69vs Predicted
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16University of California at San Diego-2.42-0.12vs Predicted
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17University of California at San Diego-0.10-9.54vs Predicted
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18San Diego State University-1.93-3.50vs Predicted
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19Arizona State University-1.79-5.24vs Predicted
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20University of California at San Diego-3.00-2.39vs Predicted
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21University of California at San Diego-3.21-2.97vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.91California State University Channel Islands0.420.1%1st Place
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5.26Arizona State University0.640.1%1st Place
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5.63University of California at Santa Cruz0.480.1%1st Place
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9.58University of California at Irvine-0.660.0%1st Place
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8.99University of Washington-0.480.0%1st Place
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3.74San Diego State University1.230.2%1st Place
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5.11University of California at Santa Cruz0.650.1%1st Place
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6.83University of California at Santa Cruz0.060.1%1st Place
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11.38Arizona State University-1.160.0%1st Place
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16.3University of California at Los Angeles-2.580.0%1st Place
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9.75University of California at Davis-0.720.0%1st Place
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12.6San Diego State University-1.450.0%1st Place
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12.37University of California at Los Angeles-1.380.0%1st Place
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16.99California State University Channel Islands-2.780.0%1st Place
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13.31University of California at Irvine-1.700.0%1st Place
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15.88University of California at San Diego-2.420.0%1st Place
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7.46University of California at San Diego-0.100.1%1st Place
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14.5San Diego State University-1.930.0%1st Place
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13.76Arizona State University-1.790.0%1st Place
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17.61University of California at San Diego-3.000.0%1st Place
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18.03University of California at San Diego-3.210.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sterling Maggard | 8.8% | 11.4% | 10.7% | 9.6% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 8.7% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Juan Casal | 11.8% | 12.7% | 9.8% | 10.6% | 11.2% | 11.3% | 9.5% | 7.1% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| George Soliman | 9.5% | 10.6% | 9.6% | 11.1% | 12.5% | 9.5% | 8.9% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 3.8% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nikita Swatek | 2.6% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 9.4% | 10.8% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jaden Unruh | 4.6% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 8.6% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 8.8% | 7.9% | 9.5% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Aston Smith | 21.8% | 16.9% | 15.6% | 12.8% | 10.9% | 8.1% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Colin Olson | 12.9% | 12.2% | 12.6% | 10.4% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 5.8% | 3.7% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Isaac Sharp | 8.0% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 10.7% | 6.7% | 9.5% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 6.0% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Down | 1.7% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 8.9% | 8.4% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 6.3% | 3.5% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Andrew Bistras | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 8.9% | 10.6% | 13.3% | 14.6% | 13.8% |
| Nathaniel Holden | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| julian stauffer | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 9.9% | 9.2% | 8.7% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 0.7% |
| Conrad Kistler | 2.0% | 1.2% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 9.6% | 11.2% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 0.5% |
| Kurt Richards | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 8.2% | 11.9% | 13.2% | 17.5% | 16.3% |
| Nejan Gunawardena | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 4.1% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 9.1% | 9.7% | 8.4% | 5.8% | 3.4% | 1.4% |
| Jacob Horn | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 9.1% | 9.5% | 12.8% | 12.7% | 12.3% | 8.2% |
| Mitchel Sanford | 6.5% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 10.6% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Owen LaGuardia | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 8.4% | 9.5% | 10.1% | 10.7% | 9.1% | 8.9% | 6.1% | 3.5% |
| Camden Wacha | 0.7% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 4.3% | 2.8% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 10.1% | 7.9% | 9.3% | 10.1% | 9.3% | 8.9% | 6.6% | 4.7% | 1.8% |
| Sophia Pless | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 7.0% | 11.2% | 13.9% | 16.9% | 24.2% |
| Diana Vins | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 2.3% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 5.0% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 13.9% | 18.4% | 29.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.