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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.1%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
21
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1San Diego State University1.23+2.66vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Cruz0.65+3.14vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Cruz0.48+2.60vs Predicted
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4Arizona State University-1.79+9.80vs Predicted
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5California State University Channel Islands0.42+0.98vs Predicted
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6University of California at San Diego-0.10+1.73vs Predicted
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7San Diego State University-1.93+7.13vs Predicted
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8University of California at Irvine-1.70+5.28vs Predicted
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9University of California at Davis-0.72+0.72vs Predicted
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10University of California at Irvine-0.66-0.40vs Predicted
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11University of California at Santa Cruz0.06-4.07vs Predicted
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12University of Washington-0.48-3.05vs Predicted
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13Arizona State University0.64-7.80vs Predicted
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14University of California at Los Angeles-1.38-1.75vs Predicted
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15Arizona State University-1.16-3.71vs Predicted
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16San Diego State University-1.45-3.49vs Predicted
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17California State University Channel Islands-2.78-0.08vs Predicted
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18University of California at San Diego-2.42-1.88vs Predicted
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19University of California at San Diego-3.00-1.31vs Predicted
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20University of California at Los Angeles-2.58-3.54vs Predicted
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21University of California at San Diego-3.21-2.96vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.66San Diego State University1.230.2%1st Place
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5.14University of California at Santa Cruz0.650.1%1st Place
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5.6University of California at Santa Cruz0.480.1%1st Place
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13.8Arizona State University-1.790.0%1st Place
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5.98California State University Channel Islands0.420.1%1st Place
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7.73University of California at San Diego-0.100.1%1st Place
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14.13San Diego State University-1.930.0%1st Place
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13.28University of California at Irvine-1.700.0%1st Place
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9.72University of California at Davis-0.720.0%1st Place
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9.6University of California at Irvine-0.660.0%1st Place
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6.93University of California at Santa Cruz0.060.1%1st Place
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8.95University of Washington-0.480.0%1st Place
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5.2Arizona State University0.640.1%1st Place
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12.25University of California at Los Angeles-1.380.0%1st Place
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11.29Arizona State University-1.160.0%1st Place
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12.51San Diego State University-1.450.0%1st Place
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16.92California State University Channel Islands-2.780.0%1st Place
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16.12University of California at San Diego-2.420.0%1st Place
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17.69University of California at San Diego-3.000.0%1st Place
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16.46University of California at Los Angeles-2.580.0%1st Place
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18.04University of California at San Diego-3.210.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Smith | 22.1% | 18.5% | 15.0% | 13.8% | 10.1% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Colin Olson | 12.4% | 13.4% | 10.0% | 11.0% | 11.2% | 10.7% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| George Soliman | 9.1% | 9.7% | 12.3% | 11.3% | 10.8% | 9.5% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 3.4% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Camden Wacha | 0.8% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 3.3% | 1.2% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 6.2% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 10.5% | 9.4% | 8.1% | 9.0% | 7.4% | 4.8% | 1.8% |
| Sterling Maggard | 11.0% | 8.1% | 11.0% | 10.0% | 9.0% | 8.3% | 10.1% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mitchel Sanford | 5.4% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 8.8% | 7.7% | 9.4% | 9.0% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Owen LaGuardia | 0.7% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 10.5% | 9.4% | 9.7% | 5.0% | 3.3% |
| Nejan Gunawardena | 1.9% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 10.2% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 6.0% | 4.2% | 1.7% |
| Nathaniel Holden | 2.4% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 6.2% | 9.0% | 9.8% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Nikita Swatek | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 6.1% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 9.5% | 9.0% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Isaac Sharp | 6.8% | 9.0% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 10.2% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jaden Unruh | 3.1% | 4.1% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Juan Casal | 12.2% | 11.0% | 11.9% | 10.1% | 12.5% | 11.3% | 9.5% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Conrad Kistler | 1.9% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 9.6% | 10.4% | 7.5% | 5.5% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 0.2% |
| Andrew Down | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 6.1% | 3.7% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| julian stauffer | 2.0% | 1.2% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 8.4% | 9.4% | 10.6% | 9.2% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 3.9% | 2.3% | 0.6% |
| Kurt Richards | 0.6% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 10.9% | 15.9% | 16.8% | 15.3% |
| Jacob Horn | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 10.2% | 12.8% | 12.2% | 13.7% | 9.1% |
| Sophia Pless | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 8.5% | 11.0% | 12.4% | 18.9% | 24.3% |
| Andrew Bistras | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 2.7% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 11.3% | 12.0% | 13.0% | 13.9% | 12.5% |
| Diana Vins | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 4.5% | 7.2% | 8.7% | 13.4% | 17.8% | 30.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.