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📊 Prediction Accuracy
55.6%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
9
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Vermont2.03+3.63vs Predicted
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2University of Vermont2.78+1.28vs Predicted
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3Williams College1.47+2.85vs Predicted
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4Tufts University2.31-0.03vs Predicted
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5Bates College0.74+1.98vs Predicted
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6University of Vermont1.64-0.61vs Predicted
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7Middlebury College1.50-1.20vs Predicted
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8Maine Maritime Academy2.03-3.39vs Predicted
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9Dartmouth College2.10-4.50vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.63University of Vermont2.030.1%1st Place
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3.28University of Vermont2.780.2%1st Place
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5.85Williams College1.470.1%1st Place
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3.97Tufts University2.310.2%1st Place
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6.98Bates College0.740.0%1st Place
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5.39University of Vermont1.640.1%1st Place
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5.8Middlebury College1.500.1%1st Place
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4.61Maine Maritime Academy2.030.1%1st Place
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4.5Dartmouth College2.100.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Duncan | 13.0% | 10.8% | 12.8% | 12.1% | 12.9% | 11.5% | 12.7% | 8.6% | 5.6% |
| Colby Vavolotis | 21.1% | 22.8% | 16.1% | 14.4% | 10.7% | 6.8% | 4.7% | 2.7% | 0.7% |
| Timothy Lorenzen | 6.0% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 11.2% | 9.9% | 14.9% | 17.3% | 16.4% |
| Cameron Barclift | 16.2% | 15.9% | 15.8% | 13.3% | 12.4% | 9.6% | 8.4% | 5.8% | 2.6% |
| Connor Bair-Cucchiaro | 2.9% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 8.7% | 9.9% | 15.3% | 41.4% |
| Jeffrey Chace | 8.6% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 10.1% | 12.5% | 16.1% | 12.4% | 14.6% | 9.7% |
| Jack Kerby-Miller | 7.8% | 4.7% | 8.7% | 9.6% | 9.7% | 12.8% | 15.3% | 16.8% | 14.6% |
| Hollister Poole | 12.1% | 11.9% | 13.5% | 12.0% | 12.1% | 12.1% | 12.1% | 9.3% | 4.9% |
| Warren (Trace) Smith | 12.3% | 13.2% | 11.9% | 14.6% | 12.2% | 12.5% | 9.6% | 9.6% | 4.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.