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📊 Prediction Accuracy
66.7%
Within 2 Positions
1.5
Avg Position Diff
9
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Vermont2.78+2.18vs Predicted
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2Tufts University2.31+2.20vs Predicted
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3Dartmouth College2.10+1.51vs Predicted
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4University of Vermont2.03+0.51vs Predicted
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5University of Vermont1.64+0.27vs Predicted
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6Maine Maritime Academy2.03-1.42vs Predicted
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7Williams College1.47-1.15vs Predicted
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8Bates College0.74-0.82vs Predicted
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9Middlebury College1.50-3.28vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.18University of Vermont2.780.2%1st Place
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4.2Tufts University2.310.1%1st Place
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4.51Dartmouth College2.100.1%1st Place
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4.51University of Vermont2.030.1%1st Place
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5.27University of Vermont1.640.1%1st Place
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4.58Maine Maritime Academy2.030.1%1st Place
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5.85Williams College1.470.1%1st Place
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7.18Bates College0.740.0%1st Place
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5.72Middlebury College1.500.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colby Vavolotis | 24.3% | 22.2% | 15.5% | 13.0% | 10.3% | 7.2% | 4.5% | 2.5% | 0.5% |
| Cameron Barclift | 11.3% | 17.1% | 14.0% | 15.2% | 12.3% | 12.4% | 9.1% | 5.6% | 3.0% |
| Warren (Trace) Smith | 13.2% | 11.4% | 12.6% | 14.1% | 12.0% | 12.1% | 11.9% | 8.9% | 3.8% |
| John Duncan | 12.4% | 12.4% | 13.6% | 13.5% | 12.8% | 11.1% | 10.4% | 8.9% | 4.9% |
| Jeffrey Chace | 8.5% | 9.5% | 11.2% | 9.8% | 13.9% | 9.3% | 12.5% | 13.8% | 11.5% |
| Hollister Poole | 12.5% | 10.8% | 12.6% | 13.6% | 13.4% | 12.1% | 12.5% | 7.7% | 4.8% |
| Timothy Lorenzen | 7.0% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 9.6% | 13.9% | 15.8% | 17.7% | 14.0% |
| Connor Bair-Cucchiaro | 3.7% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 8.1% | 9.9% | 17.1% | 43.8% |
| Jack Kerby-Miller | 7.1% | 7.6% | 8.7% | 7.8% | 10.1% | 13.8% | 13.4% | 17.8% | 13.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.