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📊 Prediction Accuracy
55.6%
Within 2 Positions
1.5
Avg Position Diff
9
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Vermont2.78+2.16vs Predicted
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2University of Vermont2.03+2.80vs Predicted
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3Tufts University2.31+1.07vs Predicted
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4Dartmouth College2.10+0.35vs Predicted
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5University of Vermont1.64+0.28vs Predicted
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6Williams College1.47-0.26vs Predicted
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7Bates College0.74+0.22vs Predicted
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8Maine Maritime Academy2.03-3.36vs Predicted
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9Middlebury College1.50-3.26vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.16University of Vermont2.780.3%1st Place
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4.8University of Vermont2.030.1%1st Place
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4.07Tufts University2.310.2%1st Place
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4.35Dartmouth College2.100.1%1st Place
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5.28University of Vermont1.640.1%1st Place
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5.74Williams College1.470.1%1st Place
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7.22Bates College0.740.0%1st Place
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4.64Maine Maritime Academy2.030.1%1st Place
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5.74Middlebury College1.500.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colby Vavolotis | 25.2% | 20.0% | 17.6% | 13.4% | 9.6% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 2.4% | 0.4% |
| John Duncan | 9.2% | 10.5% | 13.8% | 12.2% | 13.5% | 13.6% | 12.4% | 9.6% | 5.2% |
| Cameron Barclift | 15.6% | 14.7% | 13.6% | 14.2% | 13.3% | 11.8% | 8.9% | 6.2% | 1.7% |
| Warren (Trace) Smith | 13.2% | 13.6% | 12.8% | 14.2% | 13.5% | 11.5% | 10.4% | 6.6% | 4.2% |
| Jeffrey Chace | 8.4% | 11.0% | 9.2% | 11.4% | 10.8% | 10.4% | 13.5% | 14.7% | 10.6% |
| Timothy Lorenzen | 6.6% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 8.9% | 11.0% | 12.5% | 16.4% | 15.0% | 14.2% |
| Connor Bair-Cucchiaro | 3.2% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 6.0% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 18.0% | 44.0% |
| Hollister Poole | 11.8% | 12.5% | 12.2% | 12.8% | 12.7% | 11.1% | 11.5% | 9.8% | 5.6% |
| Jack Kerby-Miller | 6.8% | 6.8% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 9.6% | 14.0% | 12.8% | 17.7% | 14.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.