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📊 Prediction Accuracy
55.6%
Within 2 Positions
1.8
Avg Position Diff
9
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Vermont2.78+2.17vs Predicted
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2Dartmouth College2.10+2.64vs Predicted
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3Tufts University2.31+1.10vs Predicted
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4University of Vermont1.64+1.32vs Predicted
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5Middlebury College1.50+0.58vs Predicted
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6University of Vermont2.03-1.43vs Predicted
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7Bates College0.74+0.24vs Predicted
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8Williams College1.47-2.22vs Predicted
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9Maine Maritime Academy2.03-4.42vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.17University of Vermont2.780.2%1st Place
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4.64Dartmouth College2.100.1%1st Place
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4.1Tufts University2.310.2%1st Place
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5.32University of Vermont1.640.1%1st Place
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5.58Middlebury College1.500.1%1st Place
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4.57University of Vermont2.030.1%1st Place
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7.24Bates College0.740.0%1st Place
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5.78Williams College1.470.1%1st Place
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4.58Maine Maritime Academy2.030.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colby Vavolotis | 24.5% | 20.5% | 16.2% | 15.6% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 5.0% | 1.9% | 0.4% |
| Warren (Trace) Smith | 9.2% | 13.0% | 14.6% | 12.6% | 12.3% | 13.4% | 10.8% | 9.7% | 4.4% |
| Cameron Barclift | 15.5% | 14.0% | 14.8% | 14.7% | 12.6% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 7.4% | 2.0% |
| Jeffrey Chace | 8.0% | 9.7% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 11.7% | 12.3% | 13.7% | 14.8% | 9.8% |
| Jack Kerby-Miller | 7.2% | 8.4% | 10.0% | 9.6% | 10.2% | 10.7% | 14.4% | 15.4% | 14.1% |
| John Duncan | 11.6% | 12.5% | 11.6% | 13.1% | 14.2% | 13.1% | 11.7% | 8.0% | 4.2% |
| Connor Bair-Cucchiaro | 3.6% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 10.8% | 17.5% | 44.3% |
| Timothy Lorenzen | 8.0% | 6.3% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 10.1% | 13.2% | 13.4% | 16.1% | 16.4% |
| Hollister Poole | 12.4% | 12.4% | 12.2% | 11.0% | 14.1% | 13.3% | 11.0% | 9.2% | 4.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.