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📊 Prediction Accuracy
66.7%
Within 2 Positions
1.8
Avg Position Diff
9
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College2.10+3.48vs Predicted
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2University of Vermont2.03+2.78vs Predicted
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3Tufts University2.31+1.10vs Predicted
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4University of Vermont2.78-0.94vs Predicted
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5Williams College1.47+0.63vs Predicted
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6University of Vermont1.64-0.60vs Predicted
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7Middlebury College1.50-1.21vs Predicted
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8Bates College0.74-0.84vs Predicted
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9Maine Maritime Academy2.03-4.40vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.48Dartmouth College2.100.1%1st Place
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4.78University of Vermont2.030.1%1st Place
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4.1Tufts University2.310.2%1st Place
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3.06University of Vermont2.780.2%1st Place
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5.63Williams College1.470.1%1st Place
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5.4University of Vermont1.640.1%1st Place
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5.79Middlebury College1.500.1%1st Place
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7.16Bates College0.740.0%1st Place
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4.6Maine Maritime Academy2.030.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warren (Trace) Smith | 13.1% | 12.0% | 12.7% | 13.2% | 13.0% | 14.0% | 8.7% | 9.4% | 3.9% |
| John Duncan | 9.4% | 11.1% | 13.1% | 13.1% | 14.5% | 11.4% | 11.3% | 9.9% | 6.2% |
| Cameron Barclift | 16.0% | 13.7% | 15.6% | 12.6% | 13.1% | 10.8% | 9.6% | 6.0% | 2.6% |
| Colby Vavolotis | 24.9% | 23.7% | 15.6% | 14.3% | 8.7% | 6.5% | 3.6% | 2.0% | 0.7% |
| Timothy Lorenzen | 6.5% | 8.1% | 10.1% | 10.9% | 10.3% | 9.6% | 12.8% | 17.4% | 14.3% |
| Jeffrey Chace | 7.8% | 8.6% | 9.3% | 10.2% | 11.5% | 13.7% | 14.9% | 14.0% | 10.0% |
| Jack Kerby-Miller | 6.8% | 6.3% | 8.9% | 8.4% | 9.0% | 14.3% | 15.9% | 16.4% | 14.0% |
| Connor Bair-Cucchiaro | 3.9% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 11.6% | 16.5% | 43.3% |
| Hollister Poole | 11.6% | 13.2% | 11.3% | 12.6% | 13.5% | 12.8% | 11.6% | 8.4% | 5.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.