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📊 Prediction Accuracy
63.6%
Within 2 Positions
1.8
Avg Position Diff
11
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland0.97+2.75vs Predicted
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2SUNY Maritime College-0.37+4.74vs Predicted
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3Christopher Newport University0.37+2.19vs Predicted
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4Connecticut College0.92-0.11vs Predicted
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5University of Vermont0.57-0.41vs Predicted
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6North Carolina State University0.28-0.77vs Predicted
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7George Washington University0.23-1.86vs Predicted
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8William and Mary-0.40-1.35vs Predicted
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9Clemson University0.29-3.68vs Predicted
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10Washington College-2.16-0.31vs Predicted
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11University of Maryland-2.31-1.18vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.75St. Mary's College of Maryland0.970.2%1st Place
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6.74SUNY Maritime College-0.370.1%1st Place
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5.19Christopher Newport University0.370.1%1st Place
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3.89Connecticut College0.920.2%1st Place
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4.59University of Vermont0.570.1%1st Place
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5.23North Carolina State University0.280.1%1st Place
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5.14George Washington University0.230.1%1st Place
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6.65William and Mary-0.400.1%1st Place
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5.32Clemson University0.290.1%1st Place
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9.69Washington College-2.160.0%1st Place
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9.82University of Maryland-2.310.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lina Carper | 17.2% | 17.2% | 17.7% | 12.7% | 12.1% | 10.2% | 7.1% | 4.0% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Nicole Ostapowicz | 5.7% | 3.9% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 13.4% | 14.8% | 19.8% | 10.8% | 2.8% |
| Laura Smith | 10.3% | 8.8% | 12.4% | 10.4% | 11.1% | 9.9% | 14.9% | 10.4% | 8.6% | 3.1% | 0.1% |
| Izzy Wu-Karr | 17.0% | 16.4% | 15.4% | 14.4% | 11.0% | 11.5% | 6.6% | 4.5% | 2.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Caitlin Derby | 14.5% | 13.0% | 11.9% | 11.5% | 12.4% | 10.2% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 6.5% | 1.9% | 0.1% |
| Lyla Solway | 9.4% | 11.5% | 9.3% | 11.1% | 11.2% | 12.8% | 10.8% | 10.0% | 9.5% | 3.8% | 0.6% |
| Hayden Clary | 10.5% | 11.0% | 9.5% | 10.9% | 12.3% | 12.3% | 9.9% | 11.7% | 8.6% | 3.0% | 0.3% |
| Charlotte Stillman | 5.8% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 10.5% | 10.8% | 15.0% | 17.5% | 12.6% | 2.0% |
| Ashton Loring | 8.2% | 11.6% | 10.3% | 10.7% | 10.3% | 11.7% | 11.5% | 11.5% | 10.0% | 3.1% | 1.1% |
| Nora Ciak | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 5.5% | 7.8% | 30.5% | 45.0% |
| Emma Retzlaff | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 7.6% | 30.4% | 47.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.