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📊 Prediction Accuracy
63.6%
Within 2 Positions
1.6
Avg Position Diff
11
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland0.97+2.76vs Predicted
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2Connecticut College0.92+1.77vs Predicted
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3North Carolina State University0.28+2.39vs Predicted
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4George Washington University0.23+1.51vs Predicted
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5Clemson University0.29+0.20vs Predicted
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6Christopher Newport University0.37-0.96vs Predicted
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7University of Vermont0.57-2.59vs Predicted
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8William and Mary-0.40-1.40vs Predicted
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9SUNY Maritime College-0.37-2.21vs Predicted
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10Washington College-2.16-0.31vs Predicted
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11University of Maryland-2.31-1.17vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.76St. Mary's College of Maryland0.970.2%1st Place
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3.77Connecticut College0.920.2%1st Place
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5.39North Carolina State University0.280.1%1st Place
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5.51George Washington University0.230.1%1st Place
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5.2Clemson University0.290.1%1st Place
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5.04Christopher Newport University0.370.1%1st Place
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4.41University of Vermont0.570.1%1st Place
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6.6William and Mary-0.400.1%1st Place
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6.79SUNY Maritime College-0.370.0%1st Place
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9.69Washington College-2.160.0%1st Place
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9.83University of Maryland-2.310.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lina Carper | 16.6% | 18.2% | 16.3% | 12.8% | 13.4% | 10.9% | 6.1% | 3.7% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Izzy Wu-Karr | 19.3% | 16.5% | 15.9% | 13.7% | 11.5% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 2.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Lyla Solway | 9.2% | 8.4% | 9.7% | 12.4% | 9.8% | 11.4% | 13.0% | 13.3% | 9.2% | 3.4% | 0.2% |
| Hayden Clary | 8.5% | 9.0% | 9.1% | 9.4% | 11.1% | 13.6% | 12.7% | 11.8% | 9.7% | 4.5% | 0.6% |
| Ashton Loring | 10.4% | 9.8% | 11.0% | 10.0% | 11.5% | 12.1% | 12.1% | 10.0% | 8.8% | 4.0% | 0.3% |
| Laura Smith | 10.2% | 12.0% | 9.9% | 12.3% | 12.1% | 11.2% | 9.3% | 12.2% | 7.5% | 2.9% | 0.4% |
| Caitlin Derby | 13.9% | 14.6% | 13.3% | 12.5% | 12.0% | 10.1% | 9.8% | 7.1% | 5.0% | 1.5% | 0.2% |
| Charlotte Stillman | 5.7% | 4.5% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 10.7% | 10.8% | 13.7% | 18.8% | 11.5% | 1.9% |
| Nicole Ostapowicz | 4.8% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 14.3% | 14.0% | 19.8% | 10.3% | 4.0% |
| Nora Ciak | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 9.5% | 30.7% | 44.2% |
| Emma Retzlaff | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 3.8% | 8.0% | 30.5% | 48.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.