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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
9
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College2.10+3.51vs Predicted
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2University of Vermont2.03+2.78vs Predicted
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3University of Vermont2.78+0.17vs Predicted
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4Bates College0.74+3.06vs Predicted
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5Tufts University2.31-1.04vs Predicted
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6Maine Maritime Academy2.03-1.42vs Predicted
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7University of Vermont1.64-1.55vs Predicted
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8Williams College1.47-2.21vs Predicted
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9Middlebury College1.50-3.29vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.51Dartmouth College2.100.1%1st Place
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4.78University of Vermont2.030.1%1st Place
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3.17University of Vermont2.780.2%1st Place
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7.06Bates College0.740.0%1st Place
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3.96Tufts University2.310.2%1st Place
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4.58Maine Maritime Academy2.030.1%1st Place
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5.45University of Vermont1.640.1%1st Place
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5.79Williams College1.470.1%1st Place
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5.71Middlebury College1.500.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warren (Trace) Smith | 12.3% | 12.7% | 13.4% | 12.5% | 12.6% | 12.3% | 11.5% | 8.3% | 4.4% |
| John Duncan | 9.0% | 12.3% | 12.3% | 13.6% | 12.3% | 13.3% | 10.7% | 11.8% | 4.7% |
| Colby Vavolotis | 24.7% | 19.1% | 17.9% | 14.1% | 10.2% | 7.9% | 4.0% | 1.7% | 0.4% |
| Connor Bair-Cucchiaro | 3.2% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 12.0% | 14.7% | 42.0% |
| Cameron Barclift | 16.6% | 19.7% | 12.7% | 11.4% | 11.7% | 10.6% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 3.0% |
| Hollister Poole | 11.8% | 12.1% | 12.5% | 13.4% | 13.3% | 12.1% | 11.4% | 8.6% | 4.8% |
| Jeffrey Chace | 7.0% | 7.9% | 10.0% | 10.7% | 11.6% | 12.3% | 15.1% | 16.5% | 8.9% |
| Timothy Lorenzen | 7.8% | 5.9% | 8.5% | 9.1% | 11.9% | 10.3% | 13.2% | 16.2% | 17.1% |
| Jack Kerby-Miller | 7.6% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 9.7% | 13.8% | 14.4% | 15.6% | 14.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.