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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
9
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Maine Maritime Academy2.03+3.60vs Predicted
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2Tufts University2.31+2.24vs Predicted
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3Bates College0.74+4.22vs Predicted
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4University of Vermont2.78-0.93vs Predicted
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5Dartmouth College2.10-0.61vs Predicted
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6University of Vermont1.64-0.64vs Predicted
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7Middlebury College1.50-1.22vs Predicted
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8University of Vermont2.03-3.43vs Predicted
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9Williams College1.47-3.23vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.6Maine Maritime Academy2.030.1%1st Place
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4.24Tufts University2.310.1%1st Place
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7.22Bates College0.740.0%1st Place
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3.07University of Vermont2.780.2%1st Place
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4.39Dartmouth College2.100.1%1st Place
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5.36University of Vermont1.640.1%1st Place
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5.78Middlebury College1.500.1%1st Place
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4.57University of Vermont2.030.1%1st Place
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5.77Williams College1.470.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hollister Poole | 13.2% | 10.4% | 11.7% | 14.0% | 13.1% | 12.3% | 11.6% | 9.3% | 4.4% |
| Cameron Barclift | 11.5% | 14.6% | 16.1% | 12.6% | 15.8% | 12.4% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 2.7% |
| Connor Bair-Cucchiaro | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 7.3% | 11.2% | 17.3% | 43.8% |
| Colby Vavolotis | 24.5% | 22.8% | 17.5% | 13.5% | 9.3% | 6.2% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 0.5% |
| Warren (Trace) Smith | 13.8% | 14.5% | 12.4% | 12.8% | 12.1% | 11.1% | 9.9% | 8.8% | 4.6% |
| Jeffrey Chace | 8.1% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.5% | 12.4% | 14.2% | 14.1% | 14.2% | 9.5% |
| Jack Kerby-Miller | 7.2% | 5.5% | 8.8% | 9.3% | 10.8% | 12.2% | 15.2% | 16.5% | 14.5% |
| John Duncan | 11.8% | 12.8% | 12.5% | 12.8% | 12.6% | 12.0% | 12.6% | 8.5% | 4.4% |
| Timothy Lorenzen | 7.0% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 10.1% | 9.1% | 12.3% | 14.4% | 16.4% | 15.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.