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📊 Prediction Accuracy
29.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.6
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University2.37+3.79vs Predicted
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2University of South Florida1.86+4.36vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.28+5.63vs Predicted
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4Old Dominion University0.81+6.33vs Predicted
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5George Washington University1.26+3.49vs Predicted
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6Northeastern University2.03+0.05vs Predicted
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7University of Hawaii1.09+2.34vs Predicted
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8College of Charleston2.04-2.14vs Predicted
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9St. Mary's College of Maryland0.75+1.79vs Predicted
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10University of Rhode Island0.14+2.65vs Predicted
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11Jacksonville University1.65-3.62vs Predicted
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12Christopher Newport University0.79-1.61vs Predicted
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13Connecticut College0.36-0.93vs Predicted
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14University of Michigan-0.52+0.57vs Predicted
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15Fordham University0.99-5.33vs Predicted
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16University of Vermont0.76-5.36vs Predicted
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17Tulane University2.37-12.04vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.79Georgetown University2.370.2%1st Place
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6.36University of South Florida1.860.1%1st Place
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8.63Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.280.0%1st Place
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10.33Old Dominion University0.810.0%1st Place
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8.49George Washington University1.260.0%1st Place
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6.05Northeastern University2.030.1%1st Place
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9.34University of Hawaii1.090.0%1st Place
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5.86College of Charleston2.040.1%1st Place
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10.79St. Mary's College of Maryland0.750.0%1st Place
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12.65University of Rhode Island0.140.0%1st Place
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7.38Jacksonville University1.650.1%1st Place
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10.39Christopher Newport University0.790.0%1st Place
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12.07Connecticut College0.360.0%1st Place
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14.57University of Michigan-0.520.0%1st Place
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9.67Fordham University0.990.0%1st Place
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10.64University of Vermont0.760.0%1st Place
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4.96Tulane University2.370.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelly Bates | 15.8% | 14.1% | 11.4% | 11.9% | 9.5% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kay Brunsvold | 9.4% | 8.4% | 10.5% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 8.1% | 8.9% | 9.4% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 4.5% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Starck | 4.5% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 2.8% | 1.1% |
| Gianna Dewey | 3.8% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 8.8% | 9.6% | 9.1% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 5.0% |
| Avery Canavan | 4.3% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 1.4% |
| Eva Ermlich | 9.3% | 9.5% | 8.4% | 11.7% | 9.9% | 10.0% | 9.1% | 7.2% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Vivian Bonsager | 3.9% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 1.3% |
| Emma Tallman | 11.3% | 11.9% | 10.1% | 9.4% | 8.9% | 6.7% | 9.4% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Cho-Cho Williams | 2.4% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 8.9% | 9.3% | 9.1% | 9.6% | 10.7% | 4.4% |
| Ariana Schwartz | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 9.1% | 11.7% | 17.1% | 15.3% |
| Emily Allen | 8.0% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| Grace Watlington | 2.7% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 9.8% | 10.2% | 7.8% | 4.3% |
| Lilly Saffer | 1.5% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 10.5% | 12.6% | 13.7% | 12.3% |
| Katherine Simcoe | 0.7% | 0.5% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 2.7% | 6.2% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 8.0% | 15.8% | 45.6% |
| Lizzie Cochran | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 9.4% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 5.6% | 2.7% |
| Audrey Commerford | 2.7% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 7.9% | 6.3% | 9.2% | 8.0% | 9.8% | 8.1% | 6.2% |
| Samantha Gardner | 14.6% | 13.9% | 13.1% | 9.7% | 10.3% | 9.0% | 7.6% | 5.6% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.