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📊 Prediction Accuracy
17.6%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University2.37+3.79vs Predicted
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2Tulane University2.37+2.80vs Predicted
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3Jacksonville University1.65+4.23vs Predicted
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4Christopher Newport University0.79+6.47vs Predicted
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5Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.28+3.49vs Predicted
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6Old Dominion University0.81+4.54vs Predicted
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7St. Mary's College of Maryland0.75+3.55vs Predicted
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8University of South Florida1.86-1.58vs Predicted
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9University of Hawaii1.09+0.47vs Predicted
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10Northeastern University2.03-4.13vs Predicted
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11College of Charleston2.04-4.99vs Predicted
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12George Washington University1.26-3.28vs Predicted
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13University of Rhode Island0.14-0.27vs Predicted
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14Fordham University0.99-4.15vs Predicted
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15University of Vermont0.76-4.49vs Predicted
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16Connecticut College0.36-4.02vs Predicted
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17University of Michigan-0.52-2.42vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.79Georgetown University2.370.2%1st Place
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4.8Tulane University2.370.1%1st Place
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7.23Jacksonville University1.650.1%1st Place
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10.47Christopher Newport University0.790.0%1st Place
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8.49Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.280.0%1st Place
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10.54Old Dominion University0.810.0%1st Place
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10.55St. Mary's College of Maryland0.750.0%1st Place
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6.42University of South Florida1.860.1%1st Place
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9.47University of Hawaii1.090.0%1st Place
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5.87Northeastern University2.030.1%1st Place
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6.01College of Charleston2.040.1%1st Place
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8.72George Washington University1.260.0%1st Place
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12.73University of Rhode Island0.140.0%1st Place
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9.85Fordham University0.990.0%1st Place
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10.51University of Vermont0.760.0%1st Place
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11.98Connecticut College0.360.0%1st Place
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14.58University of Michigan-0.520.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelly Bates | 15.8% | 14.3% | 11.3% | 10.6% | 10.6% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Samantha Gardner | 14.4% | 13.6% | 12.7% | 13.0% | 11.5% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Emily Allen | 6.4% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 9.2% | 8.4% | 6.4% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| Grace Watlington | 3.6% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 11.3% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 4.7% |
| Elizabeth Starck | 4.8% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 8.7% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 3.0% | 1.8% |
| Gianna Dewey | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 8.7% | 10.4% | 8.7% | 8.8% | 4.6% |
| Cho-Cho Williams | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 6.4% | 8.7% | 7.5% | 10.9% | 8.0% | 10.4% | 8.3% | 3.7% |
| Kay Brunsvold | 10.1% | 9.7% | 9.4% | 8.7% | 6.4% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 3.3% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Vivian Bonsager | 3.1% | 3.6% | 5.2% | 3.3% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 8.7% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 5.2% | 9.4% | 3.9% | 2.3% |
| Eva Ermlich | 10.2% | 11.2% | 10.1% | 9.4% | 10.4% | 9.0% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| Emma Tallman | 11.7% | 9.1% | 9.8% | 9.4% | 9.0% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 3.3% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Avery Canavan | 4.8% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 3.0% | 1.4% |
| Ariana Schwartz | 1.3% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 10.1% | 10.9% | 17.7% | 17.0% |
| Lizzie Cochran | 2.9% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 7.7% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 9.3% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 2.6% |
| Audrey Commerford | 2.6% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 10.8% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 4.5% |
| Lilly Saffer | 1.8% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 9.8% | 11.1% | 14.0% | 11.5% |
| Katherine Simcoe | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 8.6% | 14.9% | 45.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.