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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University2.37+3.77vs Predicted
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2Tulane University2.37+2.73vs Predicted
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3University of South Florida1.86+3.48vs Predicted
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4Old Dominion University0.81+6.38vs Predicted
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5Christopher Newport University0.79+5.24vs Predicted
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6Jacksonville University1.65+1.43vs Predicted
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7Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.28+1.67vs Predicted
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8Connecticut College0.36+3.74vs Predicted
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9University of Hawaii1.09+0.54vs Predicted
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10Fordham University0.99-0.40vs Predicted
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11College of Charleston2.04-4.96vs Predicted
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12St. Mary's College of Maryland0.75-1.41vs Predicted
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13George Washington University1.26-4.13vs Predicted
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14University of Rhode Island0.14-1.19vs Predicted
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15Northeastern University2.03-9.10vs Predicted
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16University of Vermont0.76-5.33vs Predicted
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17University of Michigan-0.52-2.46vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.77Georgetown University2.370.2%1st Place
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4.73Tulane University2.370.1%1st Place
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6.48University of South Florida1.860.1%1st Place
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10.38Old Dominion University0.810.0%1st Place
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10.24Christopher Newport University0.790.0%1st Place
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7.43Jacksonville University1.650.1%1st Place
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8.67Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.280.1%1st Place
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11.74Connecticut College0.360.0%1st Place
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9.54University of Hawaii1.090.0%1st Place
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9.6Fordham University0.990.0%1st Place
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6.04College of Charleston2.040.1%1st Place
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10.59St. Mary's College of Maryland0.750.0%1st Place
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8.87George Washington University1.260.1%1st Place
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12.81University of Rhode Island0.140.0%1st Place
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5.9Northeastern University2.030.1%1st Place
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10.67University of Vermont0.760.0%1st Place
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14.54University of Michigan-0.520.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelly Bates | 15.8% | 13.5% | 13.3% | 10.2% | 10.3% | 9.2% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Samantha Gardner | 14.3% | 14.8% | 12.4% | 13.4% | 9.5% | 9.3% | 7.7% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 3.3% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kay Brunsvold | 8.3% | 9.1% | 10.3% | 10.2% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| Gianna Dewey | 3.3% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 4.2% |
| Grace Watlington | 2.6% | 3.3% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 10.3% | 8.7% | 6.9% | 4.3% |
| Emily Allen | 6.9% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 8.7% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Elizabeth Starck | 5.2% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 8.9% | 7.2% | 9.9% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 0.8% |
| Lilly Saffer | 2.9% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 9.6% | 12.0% | 13.5% | 12.3% |
| Vivian Bonsager | 3.0% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 2.0% |
| Lizzie Cochran | 3.4% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 2.6% |
| Emma Tallman | 11.2% | 9.0% | 10.6% | 8.9% | 9.3% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Cho-Cho Williams | 2.7% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 9.6% | 10.9% | 9.0% | 4.6% |
| Avery Canavan | 5.2% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 9.6% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 3.7% | 1.8% |
| Ariana Schwartz | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 2.6% | 1.4% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 6.8% | 9.9% | 12.4% | 18.4% | 17.5% |
| Eva Ermlich | 10.9% | 12.0% | 9.5% | 8.5% | 10.1% | 5.9% | 10.3% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Audrey Commerford | 2.7% | 2.0% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 10.2% | 8.0% | 5.5% |
| Katherine Simcoe | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 14.9% | 44.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.