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📊 Prediction Accuracy
41.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Tulane University2.37+3.78vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.28+6.54vs Predicted
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3Georgetown University2.37+1.83vs Predicted
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4Old Dominion University0.81+6.31vs Predicted
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5College of Charleston2.04+0.72vs Predicted
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6St. Mary's College of Maryland0.75+4.76vs Predicted
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7University of South Florida1.86-0.45vs Predicted
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8Christopher Newport University0.79+2.29vs Predicted
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9Northeastern University2.03-2.90vs Predicted
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10University of Hawaii1.09-0.68vs Predicted
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11University of Rhode Island0.14+1.70vs Predicted
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12Fordham University0.99-2.31vs Predicted
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13George Washington University1.26-4.16vs Predicted
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14Connecticut College0.36-1.90vs Predicted
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15University of Vermont0.76-4.44vs Predicted
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16University of Michigan-0.52-1.48vs Predicted
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17Jacksonville University1.65-9.61vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.78Tulane University2.370.2%1st Place
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8.54Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.280.0%1st Place
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4.83Georgetown University2.370.1%1st Place
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10.31Old Dominion University0.810.0%1st Place
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5.72College of Charleston2.040.1%1st Place
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10.76St. Mary's College of Maryland0.750.0%1st Place
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6.55University of South Florida1.860.1%1st Place
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10.29Christopher Newport University0.790.0%1st Place
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6.1Northeastern University2.030.1%1st Place
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9.32University of Hawaii1.090.0%1st Place
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12.7University of Rhode Island0.140.0%1st Place
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9.69Fordham University0.990.0%1st Place
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8.84George Washington University1.260.1%1st Place
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12.1Connecticut College0.360.0%1st Place
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10.56University of Vermont0.760.0%1st Place
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14.52University of Michigan-0.520.0%1st Place
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7.39Jacksonville University1.650.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samantha Gardner | 15.6% | 13.6% | 12.1% | 12.1% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 9.7% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Starck | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 2.4% | 0.8% |
| Kelly Bates | 14.7% | 15.0% | 11.8% | 11.1% | 9.8% | 9.5% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Gianna Dewey | 3.3% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 10.0% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 5.7% |
| Emma Tallman | 11.0% | 11.3% | 11.3% | 9.9% | 10.8% | 9.8% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cho-Cho Williams | 3.1% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 4.9% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 10.7% | 9.5% | 9.4% | 4.4% |
| Kay Brunsvold | 8.3% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 9.9% | 9.5% | 9.1% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Grace Watlington | 3.7% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 9.1% | 9.3% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 4.6% |
| Eva Ermlich | 9.4% | 9.7% | 9.4% | 10.8% | 9.3% | 9.8% | 8.7% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Vivian Bonsager | 4.0% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 7.8% | 9.1% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 9.9% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 1.8% |
| Ariana Schwartz | 2.0% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 9.5% | 12.5% | 16.1% | 19.1% |
| Lizzie Cochran | 3.4% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 8.8% | 9.1% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 4.6% | 3.2% |
| Avery Canavan | 5.0% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 3.6% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 1.3% |
| Lilly Saffer | 1.9% | 1.1% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 8.8% | 10.5% | 11.9% | 14.8% | 11.8% |
| Audrey Commerford | 2.9% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 9.7% | 9.4% | 9.0% | 8.4% | 5.4% |
| Katherine Simcoe | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 6.6% | 10.4% | 17.1% | 41.5% |
| Emily Allen | 6.1% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 9.3% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 9.3% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.