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📊 Prediction Accuracy
29.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University2.37+3.73vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.28+6.52vs Predicted
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3Tulane University2.37+1.81vs Predicted
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4University of South Florida1.86+2.54vs Predicted
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5Jacksonville University1.65+2.09vs Predicted
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6George Washington University1.26+2.88vs Predicted
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7St. Mary's College of Maryland0.75+3.63vs Predicted
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8College of Charleston2.04-2.14vs Predicted
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9University of Vermont0.76+1.73vs Predicted
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10Connecticut College0.36+1.93vs Predicted
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11Old Dominion University0.81-0.57vs Predicted
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12University of Rhode Island0.14+0.68vs Predicted
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13Christopher Newport University0.79-2.45vs Predicted
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14Fordham University0.99-4.19vs Predicted
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15University of Hawaii1.09-5.68vs Predicted
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16Northeastern University2.03-10.03vs Predicted
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17University of Michigan-0.52-2.47vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.73Georgetown University2.370.2%1st Place
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8.52Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.280.0%1st Place
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4.81Tulane University2.370.1%1st Place
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6.54University of South Florida1.860.1%1st Place
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7.09Jacksonville University1.650.1%1st Place
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8.88George Washington University1.260.0%1st Place
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10.63St. Mary's College of Maryland0.750.0%1st Place
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5.86College of Charleston2.040.1%1st Place
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10.73University of Vermont0.760.0%1st Place
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11.93Connecticut College0.360.0%1st Place
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10.43Old Dominion University0.810.0%1st Place
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12.68University of Rhode Island0.140.0%1st Place
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10.55Christopher Newport University0.790.0%1st Place
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9.81Fordham University0.990.0%1st Place
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9.32University of Hawaii1.090.0%1st Place
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5.97Northeastern University2.030.1%1st Place
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14.53University of Michigan-0.520.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelly Bates | 15.7% | 14.6% | 12.7% | 11.1% | 8.5% | 10.1% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Starck | 4.8% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 0.7% |
| Samantha Gardner | 14.7% | 14.1% | 12.4% | 12.3% | 10.3% | 8.8% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 3.7% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Kay Brunsvold | 8.9% | 9.7% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 9.6% | 8.4% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Emily Allen | 7.3% | 7.4% | 9.1% | 7.1% | 9.5% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 5.9% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 0.3% |
| Avery Canavan | 4.6% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 8.0% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 3.2% | 1.6% |
| Cho-Cho Williams | 3.2% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 7.0% | 9.5% | 8.5% | 8.9% | 10.1% | 9.6% | 8.9% | 3.6% |
| Emma Tallman | 11.3% | 10.9% | 11.0% | 10.2% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 5.9% | 7.7% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 3.7% | 2.7% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Audrey Commerford | 2.9% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 9.6% | 7.2% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 9.7% | 5.4% |
| Lilly Saffer | 1.9% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 10.1% | 11.2% | 15.7% | 9.6% |
| Gianna Dewey | 3.8% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 9.7% | 7.6% | 11.1% | 8.5% | 4.2% |
| Ariana Schwartz | 1.6% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 7.2% | 8.7% | 11.2% | 16.6% | 18.6% |
| Grace Watlington | 3.0% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 8.6% | 6.3% | 10.0% | 10.3% | 8.4% | 7.0% | 6.0% |
| Lizzie Cochran | 3.1% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 4.6% | 6.5% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 9.8% | 5.6% | 2.2% |
| Vivian Bonsager | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 9.7% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 3.8% | 2.1% |
| Eva Ermlich | 8.6% | 10.8% | 10.9% | 9.3% | 10.2% | 8.8% | 9.0% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Katherine Simcoe | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 14.9% | 45.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.