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📊 Prediction Accuracy
23.5%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University2.37+3.43vs Predicted
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2Tulane University1.59+5.03vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.28+5.23vs Predicted
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4College of Charleston2.04+1.67vs Predicted
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5University of Vermont0.76+5.09vs Predicted
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6University of Hawaii0.40+5.76vs Predicted
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7Jacksonville University1.65-0.11vs Predicted
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8Fordham University0.99+1.19vs Predicted
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9Old Dominion University0.81+1.21vs Predicted
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10Northeastern University2.03-4.44vs Predicted
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11George Washington University1.26-2.49vs Predicted
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12University of South Florida1.86-5.80vs Predicted
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13Christopher Newport University0.79-2.71vs Predicted
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14St. Mary's College of Maryland0.75-3.56vs Predicted
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15Connecticut College0.36-3.32vs Predicted
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16University of Rhode Island0.14-3.55vs Predicted
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17University of Michigan-0.52-2.64vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.43Georgetown University2.370.2%1st Place
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7.03Tulane University1.590.1%1st Place
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8.23Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.280.1%1st Place
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5.67College of Charleston2.040.1%1st Place
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10.09University of Vermont0.760.0%1st Place
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11.76University of Hawaii0.400.0%1st Place
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6.89Jacksonville University1.650.1%1st Place
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9.19Fordham University0.990.1%1st Place
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10.21Old Dominion University0.810.0%1st Place
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5.56Northeastern University2.030.1%1st Place
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8.51George Washington University1.260.1%1st Place
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6.2University of South Florida1.860.1%1st Place
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10.29Christopher Newport University0.790.0%1st Place
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10.44St. Mary's College of Maryland0.750.0%1st Place
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11.68Connecticut College0.360.0%1st Place
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12.45University of Rhode Island0.140.0%1st Place
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14.36University of Michigan-0.520.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelly Bates | 18.8% | 14.8% | 12.3% | 11.9% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Gabriela Vassel | 7.4% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Elizabeth Starck | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 2.4% | 1.2% |
| Emma Tallman | 11.4% | 11.3% | 10.4% | 9.5% | 10.6% | 8.6% | 10.0% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Audrey Commerford | 2.8% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 9.5% | 8.4% | 6.4% | 8.4% | 4.2% |
| Malia Johnson | 2.5% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 9.1% | 13.0% | 12.0% | 10.6% |
| Emily Allen | 7.7% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 6.8% | 8.9% | 8.7% | 9.1% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 7.7% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Lizzie Cochran | 5.0% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 1.7% |
| Gianna Dewey | 2.7% | 2.8% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 9.4% | 7.2% | 9.5% | 7.4% | 3.6% |
| Eva Ermlich | 12.3% | 10.4% | 12.2% | 10.9% | 9.6% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| Avery Canavan | 5.7% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 2.0% | 0.9% |
| Kay Brunsvold | 9.1% | 10.6% | 11.3% | 8.7% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Grace Watlington | 3.3% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 5.3% |
| Cho-Cho Williams | 2.5% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 4.8% | 3.2% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 10.0% | 8.6% | 3.9% |
| Lilly Saffer | 1.7% | 3.4% | 1.5% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 10.4% | 10.7% | 13.9% | 10.4% |
| Ariana Schwartz | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 7.9% | 9.9% | 12.1% | 16.1% | 14.3% |
| Katherine Simcoe | 0.6% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 7.1% | 8.4% | 13.9% | 43.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.