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📊 Prediction Accuracy
41.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Christopher Newport University0.79+8.97vs Predicted
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2Northeastern University2.03+3.62vs Predicted
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3Georgetown University2.37+1.68vs Predicted
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4Fordham University0.99+5.58vs Predicted
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5College of Charleston2.04+0.54vs Predicted
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6St. Mary's College of Maryland0.75+4.60vs Predicted
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7University of Hawaii0.40+4.65vs Predicted
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8Tulane University1.59-0.86vs Predicted
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9Jacksonville University1.65-1.86vs Predicted
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10University of Vermont0.76+0.29vs Predicted
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11Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.28-2.52vs Predicted
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12Old Dominion University0.81-1.84vs Predicted
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13University of Rhode Island0.14-0.36vs Predicted
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14George Washington University1.26-5.34vs Predicted
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15University of South Florida1.86-8.69vs Predicted
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16Connecticut College0.87-5.99vs Predicted
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17University of Michigan-0.52-2.50vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.97Christopher Newport University0.790.0%1st Place
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5.62Northeastern University2.030.1%1st Place
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4.68Georgetown University2.370.1%1st Place
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9.58Fordham University0.990.0%1st Place
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5.54College of Charleston2.040.1%1st Place
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10.6St. Mary's College of Maryland0.750.0%1st Place
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11.65University of Hawaii0.400.0%1st Place
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7.14Tulane University1.590.1%1st Place
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7.14Jacksonville University1.650.1%1st Place
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10.29University of Vermont0.760.0%1st Place
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8.48Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.280.1%1st Place
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10.16Old Dominion University0.810.0%1st Place
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12.64University of Rhode Island0.140.0%1st Place
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8.66George Washington University1.260.0%1st Place
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6.31University of South Florida1.860.1%1st Place
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10.01Connecticut College0.870.0%1st Place
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14.5University of Michigan-0.520.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grace Watlington | 4.3% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 6.6% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 8.7% | 9.1% | 8.1% | 3.5% |
| Eva Ermlich | 11.2% | 12.0% | 10.2% | 10.8% | 9.4% | 9.1% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Kelly Bates | 14.8% | 15.8% | 12.9% | 11.7% | 9.7% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Lizzie Cochran | 3.8% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 7.3% | 9.4% | 8.9% | 8.4% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 2.6% |
| Emma Tallman | 12.5% | 10.5% | 12.2% | 11.6% | 8.5% | 10.0% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 3.7% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Cho-Cho Williams | 3.4% | 1.9% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 9.6% | 9.3% | 8.3% | 6.0% |
| Malia Johnson | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 10.1% | 11.5% | 14.5% | 8.7% |
| Gabriela Vassel | 9.1% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| Emily Allen | 6.1% | 7.1% | 9.4% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 9.1% | 7.7% | 9.1% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| Audrey Commerford | 3.2% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 3.5% |
| Elizabeth Starck | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 2.3% | 1.1% |
| Gianna Dewey | 3.0% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 8.7% | 8.0% | 4.3% |
| Ariana Schwartz | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 12.1% | 17.7% | 17.7% |
| Avery Canavan | 4.6% | 6.0% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 8.3% | 4.7% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 2.3% | 1.4% |
| Kay Brunsvold | 10.7% | 10.5% | 7.2% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 7.4% | 9.3% | 7.0% | 8.7% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| Natalie Fear | 3.1% | 2.3% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 8.4% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 3.3% |
| Katherine Simcoe | 0.4% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 8.0% | 13.3% | 46.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.