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📊 Prediction Accuracy
29.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.9
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland3.92+5.79vs Predicted
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2U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.42+6.90vs Predicted
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3College of Charleston3.95+3.83vs Predicted
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4Connecticut College3.71+3.81vs Predicted
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5Boston College3.88+1.94vs Predicted
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6Roger Williams University3.95+0.99vs Predicted
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7Cornell University2.77+4.55vs Predicted
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8Georgetown University3.39+0.88vs Predicted
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9University of Virginia3.01+1.82vs Predicted
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10University of Vermont2.55+2.27vs Predicted
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11University of South Florida3.74-3.12vs Predicted
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12Boston University3.35-2.78vs Predicted
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13Old Dominion University3.67-4.94vs Predicted
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14Columbia University2.34-0.90vs Predicted
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15Washington College3.07-4.66vs Predicted
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16University of Pennsylvania3.16-5.97vs Predicted
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17Dartmouth College4.05-10.42vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.79St. Mary's College of Maryland3.920.1%1st Place
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8.9U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.420.1%1st Place
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6.83College of Charleston3.950.1%1st Place
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7.81Connecticut College3.710.1%1st Place
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6.94Boston College3.880.1%1st Place
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6.99Roger Williams University3.950.1%1st Place
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11.55Cornell University2.770.0%1st Place
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8.88Georgetown University3.390.1%1st Place
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10.82University of Virginia3.010.0%1st Place
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12.27University of Vermont2.550.0%1st Place
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7.88University of South Florida3.740.1%1st Place
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9.22Boston University3.350.1%1st Place
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8.06Old Dominion University3.670.1%1st Place
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13.1Columbia University2.340.0%1st Place
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10.34Washington College3.070.0%1st Place
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10.03University of Pennsylvania3.160.0%1st Place
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6.58Dartmouth College4.050.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joshua Greenslade | 9.9% | 9.3% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 1.3% | 0.3% |
| Gary Herring | 6.0% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 2.7% |
| Ben Spector | 8.2% | 9.4% | 10.1% | 9.7% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.7% |
| Atlantic Brugman | 7.6% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 1.5% |
| Alex Cook | 9.9% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 9.3% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 3.1% | 4.9% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 1.5% | 1.2% |
| William Macdonald | 8.2% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 9.1% | 8.9% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| Duncan Howes | 3.2% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 8.5% | 13.3% | 11.2% | 12.1% |
| Peter Johns | 5.8% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 8.4% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 3.6% |
| Christopher Stessing | 2.5% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 8.7% | 7.2% | 9.3% | 10.6% | 8.8% |
| Steven Pelissier | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 9.8% | 13.9% | 19.0% |
| Britton Steele | 8.4% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 0.8% |
| Matt Johnson | 5.0% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 4.2% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 3.9% |
| Gavin Rudolph | 6.7% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 1.9% |
| Billy Hines | 1.1% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 7.8% | 9.9% | 15.3% | 29.0% |
| Sam Fitzgerald | 3.3% | 3.3% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 7.6% |
| Jack Swikart | 3.6% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 6.3% |
| Matthew Wefer | 8.5% | 11.7% | 9.6% | 6.8% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.