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📊 Prediction Accuracy
29.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Roger Williams University3.95+5.67vs Predicted
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2Boston University3.35+7.15vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland3.92+3.99vs Predicted
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4Old Dominion University3.67+3.99vs Predicted
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5Connecticut College3.71+2.60vs Predicted
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6Cornell University2.77+5.67vs Predicted
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7Boston College3.88+0.16vs Predicted
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8Dartmouth College4.05-1.63vs Predicted
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9College of Charleston3.95-2.01vs Predicted
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10University of Virginia3.01+0.54vs Predicted
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11U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.42-1.89vs Predicted
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12University of South Florida3.74-4.34vs Predicted
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13Georgetown University3.39-3.77vs Predicted
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14University of Vermont2.55-1.55vs Predicted
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15Washington College3.07-4.67vs Predicted
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16University of Pennsylvania3.16-5.95vs Predicted
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17Columbia University2.34-3.94vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.67Roger Williams University3.950.1%1st Place
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9.15Boston University3.350.1%1st Place
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6.99St. Mary's College of Maryland3.920.1%1st Place
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7.99Old Dominion University3.670.1%1st Place
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7.6Connecticut College3.710.1%1st Place
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11.67Cornell University2.770.0%1st Place
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7.16Boston College3.880.1%1st Place
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6.37Dartmouth College4.050.1%1st Place
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6.99College of Charleston3.950.1%1st Place
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10.54University of Virginia3.010.0%1st Place
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9.11U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.420.1%1st Place
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7.66University of South Florida3.740.1%1st Place
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9.23Georgetown University3.390.0%1st Place
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12.45University of Vermont2.550.0%1st Place
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10.33Washington College3.070.0%1st Place
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10.05University of Pennsylvania3.160.0%1st Place
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13.06Columbia University2.340.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Macdonald | 10.2% | 9.9% | 8.9% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| Matt Johnson | 5.1% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 7.8% | 5.7% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 2.9% |
| Joshua Greenslade | 8.4% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 9.1% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 0.4% |
| Gavin Rudolph | 7.4% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 3.3% | 1.0% |
| Atlantic Brugman | 7.8% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 3.2% | 4.6% | 2.8% | 1.5% |
| Duncan Howes | 3.1% | 1.7% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 3.7% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 8.5% | 11.2% | 12.5% | 13.9% |
| Alex Cook | 8.1% | 8.5% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 9.2% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 1.6% | 0.4% |
| Matthew Wefer | 11.4% | 10.9% | 9.1% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.5% |
| Ben Spector | 7.2% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 9.3% | 9.4% | 9.0% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 3.1% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 0.8% |
| Christopher Stessing | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 9.0% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 7.7% |
| Gary Herring | 6.2% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 2.8% |
| Britton Steele | 7.2% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 1.4% |
| Peter Johns | 4.7% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 3.7% |
| Steven Pelissier | 1.9% | 1.2% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 8.7% | 16.9% | 20.1% |
| Sam Fitzgerald | 3.9% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 9.0% | 10.0% | 7.8% | 7.4% |
| Jack Swikart | 3.3% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 10.1% | 6.3% | 6.5% |
| Billy Hines | 1.2% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 9.7% | 15.7% | 28.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.