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📊 Prediction Accuracy
47.1%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Connecticut College3.71+6.61vs Predicted
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2Roger Williams University3.95+4.78vs Predicted
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3Old Dominion University3.67+4.94vs Predicted
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4St. Mary's College of Maryland3.92+3.07vs Predicted
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5College of Charleston3.95+1.70vs Predicted
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6Cornell University2.77+5.69vs Predicted
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7Dartmouth College4.05-0.51vs Predicted
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8Boston College3.88-0.93vs Predicted
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9Georgetown University3.39+0.24vs Predicted
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10U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.42-1.19vs Predicted
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11Boston University3.35-1.67vs Predicted
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12Washington College3.07-1.66vs Predicted
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13University of South Florida3.74-5.22vs Predicted
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14University of Vermont2.55-1.57vs Predicted
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15Columbia University2.34-2.04vs Predicted
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16University of Pennsylvania3.16-5.88vs Predicted
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17University of Virginia3.01-6.34vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.61Connecticut College3.710.1%1st Place
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6.78Roger Williams University3.950.1%1st Place
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7.94Old Dominion University3.670.1%1st Place
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7.07St. Mary's College of Maryland3.920.1%1st Place
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6.7College of Charleston3.950.1%1st Place
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11.69Cornell University2.770.0%1st Place
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6.49Dartmouth College4.050.1%1st Place
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7.07Boston College3.880.1%1st Place
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9.24Georgetown University3.390.0%1st Place
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8.81U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.420.0%1st Place
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9.33Boston University3.350.1%1st Place
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10.34Washington College3.070.0%1st Place
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7.78University of South Florida3.740.1%1st Place
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12.43University of Vermont2.550.0%1st Place
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12.96Columbia University2.340.0%1st Place
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10.12University of Pennsylvania3.160.0%1st Place
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10.66University of Virginia3.010.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlantic Brugman | 7.7% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 5.7% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 2.4% | 0.3% |
| William Macdonald | 10.1% | 8.9% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 0.2% |
| Gavin Rudolph | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 8.1% | 6.3% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 1.0% |
| Joshua Greenslade | 9.3% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 8.8% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 8.1% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 0.7% |
| Ben Spector | 9.8% | 10.0% | 9.4% | 7.8% | 9.1% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 1.6% | 0.5% |
| Duncan Howes | 2.6% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 9.8% | 11.9% | 15.4% |
| Matthew Wefer | 9.5% | 10.0% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 9.4% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.4% |
| Alex Cook | 9.6% | 8.4% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 0.2% |
| Peter Johns | 4.0% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 8.4% | 4.1% | 3.5% |
| Gary Herring | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 2.9% |
| Matt Johnson | 5.3% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 9.5% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 3.7% |
| Sam Fitzgerald | 3.5% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 10.1% | 8.7% | 7.1% |
| Britton Steele | 8.1% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 1.3% |
| Steven Pelissier | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 10.9% | 15.8% | 19.5% |
| Billy Hines | 1.2% | 3.1% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 9.3% | 15.1% | 28.5% |
| Jack Swikart | 3.5% | 2.4% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 6.2% |
| Christopher Stessing | 2.4% | 2.9% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 3.1% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 10.0% | 8.4% | 10.7% | 8.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.