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📊 Prediction Accuracy
41.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland3.92+5.78vs Predicted
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2Connecticut College3.71+5.68vs Predicted
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3Old Dominion University3.67+4.99vs Predicted
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4Dartmouth College4.05+2.54vs Predicted
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5Washington College3.07+5.11vs Predicted
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6University of South Florida3.74+1.89vs Predicted
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7U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.42+1.98vs Predicted
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8Roger Williams University3.95-1.21vs Predicted
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9University of Virginia3.01+1.83vs Predicted
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10Georgetown University3.39-1.05vs Predicted
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11University of Pennsylvania3.16-0.89vs Predicted
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12Boston College3.88-4.92vs Predicted
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13College of Charleston3.95-6.05vs Predicted
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14University of Vermont2.55-1.56vs Predicted
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15Boston University3.35-5.78vs Predicted
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16Cornell University2.77-4.39vs Predicted
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17Columbia University2.34-3.95vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.78St. Mary's College of Maryland3.920.1%1st Place
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7.68Connecticut College3.710.1%1st Place
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7.99Old Dominion University3.670.1%1st Place
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6.54Dartmouth College4.050.1%1st Place
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10.11Washington College3.070.0%1st Place
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7.89University of South Florida3.740.1%1st Place
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8.98U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.420.1%1st Place
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6.79Roger Williams University3.950.1%1st Place
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10.83University of Virginia3.010.0%1st Place
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8.95Georgetown University3.390.0%1st Place
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10.11University of Pennsylvania3.160.0%1st Place
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7.08Boston College3.880.1%1st Place
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6.95College of Charleston3.950.1%1st Place
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12.44University of Vermont2.550.0%1st Place
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9.22Boston University3.350.0%1st Place
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11.61Cornell University2.770.0%1st Place
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13.05Columbia University2.340.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joshua Greenslade | 10.4% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Atlantic Brugman | 7.4% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 8.3% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 0.9% |
| Gavin Rudolph | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 3.0% | 1.4% |
| Matthew Wefer | 11.1% | 9.6% | 8.4% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| Sam Fitzgerald | 3.2% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 9.4% | 7.8% | 6.7% |
| Britton Steele | 7.4% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 2.6% | 1.1% |
| Gary Herring | 5.5% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 2.1% |
| William Macdonald | 9.6% | 9.9% | 10.0% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 2.4% | 1.3% | 0.6% |
| Christopher Stessing | 2.2% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 12.0% | 8.3% |
| Peter Johns | 4.4% | 4.2% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 4.9% | 3.0% |
| Jack Swikart | 4.4% | 4.8% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 9.5% | 7.7% | 6.8% |
| Alex Cook | 8.1% | 9.1% | 7.7% | 9.3% | 8.6% | 5.1% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 0.5% |
| Ben Spector | 9.5% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 7.7% | 9.8% | 8.6% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 1.5% | 0.8% |
| Steven Pelissier | 1.6% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 9.5% | 10.2% | 15.2% | 20.5% |
| Matt Johnson | 4.7% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 7.5% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 8.4% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 4.7% | 4.4% |
| Duncan Howes | 2.6% | 1.9% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 13.0% | 13.4% |
| Billy Hines | 0.9% | 1.7% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 10.2% | 14.9% | 29.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.