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📊 Prediction Accuracy
58.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Stanford University2.55+2.44vs Predicted
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2University of Hawaii2.38+1.79vs Predicted
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3University of California at Berkeley0.64+5.39vs Predicted
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4San Diego State University1.23+2.76vs Predicted
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5California Poly Maritime Academy1.75+0.27vs Predicted
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6University of Southern California1.48+0.14vs Predicted
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7University of California at San Diego-0.10+3.45vs Predicted
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8University of California at Santa Barbara2.51-4.40vs Predicted
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9Arizona State University0.64-0.50vs Predicted
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10Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.00+0.20vs Predicted
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11California State University Channel Islands0.42-1.85vs Predicted
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12San Diego State University-1.53+1.96vs Predicted
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13University of California at Santa Cruz1.35-6.49vs Predicted
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14San Diego State University-1.67+0.27vs Predicted
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15Santa Clara University-1.12-2.01vs Predicted
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16Arizona State University-1.79-1.52vs Predicted
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17Arizona State University-2.14-1.91vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.44Stanford University2.550.2%1st Place
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3.79University of Hawaii2.380.2%1st Place
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8.39University of California at Berkeley0.640.0%1st Place
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6.76San Diego State University1.230.1%1st Place
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5.27California Poly Maritime Academy1.750.1%1st Place
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6.14University of Southern California1.480.1%1st Place
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10.45University of California at San Diego-0.100.0%1st Place
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3.6University of California at Santa Barbara2.510.2%1st Place
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8.5Arizona State University0.640.0%1st Place
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10.2Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.000.0%1st Place
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9.15California State University Channel Islands0.420.0%1st Place
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13.96San Diego State University-1.530.0%1st Place
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6.51University of California at Santa Cruz1.350.1%1st Place
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14.27San Diego State University-1.670.0%1st Place
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12.99Santa Clara University-1.120.0%1st Place
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14.48Arizona State University-1.790.0%1st Place
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15.09Arizona State University-2.140.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Woodworth | 21.5% | 19.8% | 14.9% | 14.2% | 13.4% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 3.1% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Erik Anderson | 18.6% | 15.7% | 16.2% | 16.0% | 12.0% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Carsten Zieger | 3.0% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 8.0% | 9.3% | 9.4% | 10.2% | 10.5% | 12.4% | 8.2% | 6.3% | 3.4% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Aston Smith | 6.4% | 5.7% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 11.7% | 10.7% | 12.2% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 4.6% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Mueller | 9.3% | 10.8% | 12.0% | 11.2% | 11.3% | 12.2% | 9.6% | 8.5% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 2.4% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Hudson Mayfield | 6.4% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 10.2% | 10.3% | 13.5% | 10.8% | 9.0% | 10.6% | 7.1% | 4.6% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mitchel Sanford | 1.7% | 0.9% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 11.4% | 12.6% | 14.8% | 13.8% | 9.9% | 4.2% | 2.3% | 0.4% |
| Henry Boeger | 20.6% | 18.7% | 16.0% | 11.8% | 12.8% | 8.7% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Juan Casal | 1.9% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 10.0% | 11.2% | 10.2% | 13.6% | 8.4% | 6.1% | 3.4% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Groom | 1.1% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 5.9% | 7.9% | 9.0% | 11.7% | 12.2% | 13.9% | 12.3% | 7.9% | 3.8% | 1.6% | 0.6% |
| Sterling Maggard | 2.5% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 10.4% | 11.8% | 12.8% | 12.1% | 9.5% | 4.3% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Marley Daniel | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 7.6% | 10.7% | 12.9% | 19.6% | 20.1% | 14.3% |
| Brian Fitzsimmons | 5.9% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 12.6% | 11.7% | 11.3% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 4.7% | 3.0% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Juan Alcala | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 5.5% | 9.2% | 13.4% | 17.8% | 21.1% | 20.1% |
| Paul Trudell | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 5.3% | 9.6% | 12.8% | 18.6% | 17.5% | 12.4% | 6.5% |
| Camden Wacha | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 5.6% | 8.2% | 15.0% | 16.9% | 21.5% | 22.4% |
| Patrick Gardiner | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 4.1% | 6.4% | 9.8% | 16.0% | 20.0% | 35.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.