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📊 Prediction Accuracy
47.1%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1San Diego State University1.23+5.65vs Predicted
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2California Poly Maritime Academy1.75+3.29vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Barbara2.51+0.61vs Predicted
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4University of Southern California1.48+2.15vs Predicted
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5University of Hawaii2.38-1.18vs Predicted
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6Arizona State University0.64+2.58vs Predicted
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7Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.00+3.12vs Predicted
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8Stanford University2.55-4.49vs Predicted
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9University of California at Santa Cruz1.35-2.50vs Predicted
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10California State University Channel Islands0.42-0.98vs Predicted
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11University of California at San Diego-0.10-0.43vs Predicted
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12University of California at Berkeley0.64-3.58vs Predicted
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13Arizona State University-1.79+1.45vs Predicted
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14San Diego State University-1.67+0.27vs Predicted
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15San Diego State University-1.53-1.17vs Predicted
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16Arizona State University-2.14-0.90vs Predicted
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17Santa Clara University-1.12-3.88vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.65San Diego State University1.230.1%1st Place
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5.29California Poly Maritime Academy1.750.1%1st Place
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3.61University of California at Santa Barbara2.510.2%1st Place
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6.15University of Southern California1.480.1%1st Place
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3.82University of Hawaii2.380.2%1st Place
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8.58Arizona State University0.640.0%1st Place
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10.12Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.000.0%1st Place
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3.51Stanford University2.550.2%1st Place
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6.5University of California at Santa Cruz1.350.1%1st Place
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9.02California State University Channel Islands0.420.0%1st Place
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10.57University of California at San Diego-0.100.0%1st Place
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8.42University of California at Berkeley0.640.0%1st Place
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14.45Arizona State University-1.790.0%1st Place
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14.27San Diego State University-1.670.0%1st Place
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13.83San Diego State University-1.530.0%1st Place
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15.1Arizona State University-2.140.0%1st Place
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13.12Santa Clara University-1.120.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Smith | 6.4% | 6.2% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 9.3% | 10.2% | 10.9% | 9.1% | 9.7% | 7.3% | 3.5% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Mueller | 9.3% | 11.3% | 9.5% | 11.3% | 12.1% | 12.2% | 12.3% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 3.6% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Henry Boeger | 18.5% | 20.2% | 15.7% | 14.6% | 11.2% | 8.4% | 5.2% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Hudson Mayfield | 6.8% | 8.5% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 10.5% | 11.3% | 11.8% | 10.5% | 9.5% | 7.1% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Erik Anderson | 18.4% | 16.8% | 16.8% | 14.7% | 8.9% | 9.7% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Juan Casal | 3.0% | 2.3% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 10.9% | 10.4% | 14.0% | 11.3% | 9.0% | 7.1% | 3.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Samuel Groom | 1.9% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 11.5% | 12.8% | 15.8% | 12.5% | 8.9% | 4.0% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Lucas Woodworth | 21.9% | 19.0% | 16.4% | 13.0% | 10.7% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brian Fitzsimmons | 6.0% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 10.7% | 10.4% | 12.5% | 12.3% | 9.1% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 3.5% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sterling Maggard | 2.2% | 2.0% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 11.3% | 12.8% | 11.1% | 11.6% | 7.5% | 4.4% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| Mitchel Sanford | 1.6% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 9.1% | 12.7% | 13.8% | 15.2% | 11.0% | 5.8% | 1.3% | 0.5% |
| Carsten Zieger | 3.0% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 6.2% | 9.9% | 11.5% | 11.7% | 11.7% | 9.0% | 7.0% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Camden Wacha | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 7.9% | 11.7% | 18.9% | 22.0% | 23.1% |
| Juan Alcala | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 3.7% | 5.5% | 8.6% | 13.9% | 18.0% | 21.2% | 19.8% |
| Marley Daniel | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 7.0% | 9.6% | 15.8% | 19.8% | 17.1% | 14.5% |
| Patrick Gardiner | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 6.7% | 9.7% | 15.5% | 23.6% | 33.7% |
| Paul Trudell | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 7.4% | 9.7% | 13.7% | 17.3% | 15.2% | 13.3% | 7.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.