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📊 Prediction Accuracy
64.7%
Within 2 Positions
1.6
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Stanford University2.55+2.40vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Barbara2.51+1.53vs Predicted
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3University of Southern California1.48+3.13vs Predicted
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4University of Hawaii2.38-0.07vs Predicted
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5San Diego State University1.23+1.62vs Predicted
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6University of California at Santa Cruz1.35+0.57vs Predicted
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7California State University Channel Islands0.42+2.07vs Predicted
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8Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.00+2.02vs Predicted
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9California Poly Maritime Academy1.75-3.51vs Predicted
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10Arizona State University0.64-1.59vs Predicted
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11University of California at Berkeley0.64-2.47vs Predicted
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12University of California at San Diego-0.10-1.51vs Predicted
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13Santa Clara University-1.12+0.05vs Predicted
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14Arizona State University-1.79+0.51vs Predicted
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15San Diego State University-1.53-1.13vs Predicted
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16San Diego State University-1.67-1.76vs Predicted
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17Arizona State University-2.14-1.86vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.4Stanford University2.550.2%1st Place
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3.53University of California at Santa Barbara2.510.2%1st Place
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6.13University of Southern California1.480.1%1st Place
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3.93University of Hawaii2.380.2%1st Place
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6.62San Diego State University1.230.1%1st Place
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6.57University of California at Santa Cruz1.350.1%1st Place
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9.07California State University Channel Islands0.420.0%1st Place
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10.02Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.000.0%1st Place
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5.49California Poly Maritime Academy1.750.1%1st Place
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8.41Arizona State University0.640.0%1st Place
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8.53University of California at Berkeley0.640.0%1st Place
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10.49University of California at San Diego-0.100.0%1st Place
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13.05Santa Clara University-1.120.0%1st Place
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14.51Arizona State University-1.790.0%1st Place
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13.87San Diego State University-1.530.0%1st Place
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14.24San Diego State University-1.670.0%1st Place
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15.14Arizona State University-2.140.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Woodworth | 22.8% | 19.3% | 14.9% | 14.8% | 10.8% | 8.0% | 5.5% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Henry Boeger | 20.2% | 18.6% | 17.7% | 14.0% | 10.6% | 8.2% | 5.3% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Hudson Mayfield | 5.8% | 7.8% | 10.5% | 10.0% | 10.4% | 9.7% | 10.3% | 10.9% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 4.7% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Erik Anderson | 18.4% | 15.3% | 15.2% | 13.8% | 11.3% | 11.0% | 6.8% | 4.0% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Aston Smith | 5.7% | 7.9% | 6.1% | 8.0% | 11.0% | 9.2% | 11.0% | 10.6% | 10.1% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brian Fitzsimmons | 6.0% | 5.7% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 12.0% | 11.4% | 11.8% | 10.5% | 9.2% | 5.3% | 3.0% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sterling Maggard | 2.7% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 10.8% | 12.1% | 14.8% | 10.4% | 8.4% | 4.3% | 1.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Samuel Groom | 2.2% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 10.3% | 11.9% | 13.8% | 11.7% | 8.7% | 5.5% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Nicholas Mueller | 7.7% | 9.2% | 11.5% | 11.5% | 12.5% | 11.5% | 10.2% | 10.0% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 2.9% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Juan Casal | 2.9% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 10.3% | 8.8% | 11.9% | 12.6% | 10.5% | 9.2% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Carsten Zieger | 3.3% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 9.6% | 10.5% | 11.9% | 11.6% | 10.4% | 6.5% | 3.4% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Mitchel Sanford | 1.3% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 13.4% | 14.0% | 13.7% | 10.3% | 4.7% | 2.2% | 0.3% |
| Paul Trudell | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 6.2% | 8.1% | 16.6% | 17.1% | 16.5% | 12.4% | 7.5% |
| Camden Wacha | 0.1% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.8% | 5.5% | 8.3% | 11.9% | 17.0% | 23.5% | 22.8% |
| Marley Daniel | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 2.6% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 7.0% | 9.6% | 15.2% | 18.4% | 19.7% | 14.3% |
| Juan Alcala | 0.2% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.9% | 3.3% | 1.8% | 7.9% | 10.0% | 13.2% | 20.5% | 18.8% | 18.6% |
| Patrick Gardiner | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 5.5% | 11.2% | 14.0% | 21.8% | 36.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.