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📊 Prediction Accuracy
64.7%
Within 2 Positions
1.9
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Stanford University2.55+2.41vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Barbara2.51+1.57vs Predicted
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3Arizona State University0.64+5.42vs Predicted
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4University of Hawaii2.38-0.05vs Predicted
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5University of California at Berkeley0.64+3.30vs Predicted
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6University of Southern California1.48+0.19vs Predicted
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7University of California at San Diego-0.10+3.41vs Predicted
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8University of California at Santa Cruz1.35-1.71vs Predicted
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9San Diego State University1.23-2.06vs Predicted
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10Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.00+0.19vs Predicted
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11California State University Channel Islands0.42-1.87vs Predicted
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12California Poly Maritime Academy1.75-6.62vs Predicted
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13Santa Clara University-1.12+0.05vs Predicted
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14San Diego State University-1.53+0.02vs Predicted
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15San Diego State University-1.67-0.88vs Predicted
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16Arizona State University-1.79-1.52vs Predicted
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17Arizona State University-2.14-1.87vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.41Stanford University2.550.2%1st Place
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3.57University of California at Santa Barbara2.510.2%1st Place
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8.42Arizona State University0.640.0%1st Place
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3.95University of Hawaii2.380.2%1st Place
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8.3University of California at Berkeley0.640.0%1st Place
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6.19University of Southern California1.480.1%1st Place
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10.41University of California at San Diego-0.100.0%1st Place
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6.29University of California at Santa Cruz1.350.1%1st Place
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6.94San Diego State University1.230.0%1st Place
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10.19Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.000.0%1st Place
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9.13California State University Channel Islands0.420.0%1st Place
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5.38California Poly Maritime Academy1.750.1%1st Place
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13.05Santa Clara University-1.120.0%1st Place
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14.02San Diego State University-1.530.0%1st Place
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14.12San Diego State University-1.670.0%1st Place
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14.48Arizona State University-1.790.0%1st Place
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15.13Arizona State University-2.140.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Woodworth | 22.3% | 19.4% | 15.5% | 12.9% | 12.8% | 7.7% | 5.4% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Henry Boeger | 20.9% | 17.3% | 16.7% | 15.4% | 9.9% | 8.3% | 6.1% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Juan Casal | 2.8% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 10.7% | 9.7% | 11.5% | 11.4% | 10.3% | 5.5% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Erik Anderson | 17.3% | 15.8% | 15.0% | 13.7% | 12.9% | 10.2% | 7.1% | 3.7% | 2.4% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Carsten Zieger | 2.5% | 3.9% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 9.3% | 10.0% | 11.8% | 11.5% | 10.7% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Hudson Mayfield | 6.6% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 9.2% | 12.0% | 12.3% | 10.3% | 11.0% | 9.7% | 6.5% | 4.7% | 3.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mitchel Sanford | 1.2% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 9.9% | 12.8% | 16.1% | 13.6% | 9.1% | 5.0% | 1.5% | 0.6% |
| Brian Fitzsimmons | 7.4% | 6.7% | 9.6% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 10.4% | 10.8% | 11.4% | 10.1% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 3.4% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Aston Smith | 4.6% | 4.9% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 9.8% | 12.5% | 10.9% | 11.6% | 9.0% | 6.2% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Groom | 1.4% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 12.3% | 13.9% | 12.4% | 10.8% | 10.9% | 3.2% | 1.0% | 0.6% |
| Sterling Maggard | 2.7% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 9.3% | 9.2% | 12.0% | 12.4% | 12.7% | 8.4% | 5.5% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Nicholas Mueller | 9.4% | 10.6% | 10.9% | 12.2% | 9.6% | 10.0% | 11.4% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 5.0% | 2.5% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Paul Trudell | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 5.6% | 8.2% | 15.6% | 18.3% | 16.0% | 12.7% | 7.8% |
| Marley Daniel | 0.1% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 4.2% | 7.1% | 9.6% | 14.6% | 18.9% | 20.4% | 15.1% |
| Juan Alcala | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 5.6% | 10.1% | 13.3% | 17.9% | 20.5% | 18.4% |
| Camden Wacha | 0.1% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 8.8% | 12.5% | 19.5% | 21.4% | 21.7% |
| Patrick Gardiner | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 4.5% | 6.8% | 9.2% | 15.0% | 21.5% | 35.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.