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📊 Prediction Accuracy
53.3%
Within 2 Positions
1.8
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University2.55+2.76vs Predicted
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2Cornell University2.69+1.38vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.28+4.07vs Predicted
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4U. S. Naval Academy2.40+0.11vs Predicted
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5Fordham University0.99+3.13vs Predicted
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6University of Pennsylvania2.06-1.06vs Predicted
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7George Washington University1.26+0.20vs Predicted
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8U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.29+2.20vs Predicted
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9Old Dominion University0.81-0.46vs Predicted
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10Columbia University0.45-0.26vs Predicted
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11Christopher Newport University0.79-2.29vs Predicted
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12SUNY Maritime College-0.02-0.69vs Predicted
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13Washington College-0.80+0.02vs Predicted
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14St. Mary's College of Maryland0.75-5.24vs Predicted
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15Princeton University-0.09-3.87vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.76Georgetown University2.550.2%1st Place
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3.38Cornell University2.690.2%1st Place
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7.07Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.280.1%1st Place
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4.11U. S. Naval Academy2.400.2%1st Place
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8.13Fordham University0.990.0%1st Place
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4.94University of Pennsylvania2.060.1%1st Place
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7.2George Washington University1.260.1%1st Place
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10.2U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.290.0%1st Place
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8.54Old Dominion University0.810.0%1st Place
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9.74Columbia University0.450.0%1st Place
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8.71Christopher Newport University0.790.0%1st Place
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11.31SUNY Maritime College-0.020.0%1st Place
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13.02Washington College-0.800.0%1st Place
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8.76St. Mary's College of Maryland0.750.0%1st Place
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11.13Princeton University-0.090.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Piper Holthus | 18.4% | 20.1% | 14.9% | 14.3% | 10.1% | 7.7% | 6.0% | 3.7% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Bridget Green | 22.9% | 20.7% | 17.7% | 11.2% | 10.4% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 2.8% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Starck | 5.8% | 5.3% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 11.0% | 9.9% | 9.3% | 7.2% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
| Eva Blauvelt | 17.2% | 15.2% | 14.4% | 11.7% | 13.3% | 10.1% | 8.4% | 4.9% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Lizzie Cochran | 4.0% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 10.9% | 10.2% | 10.8% | 9.9% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 4.2% | 1.6% |
| Sofia Segalla | 10.0% | 12.5% | 11.9% | 13.8% | 12.8% | 11.0% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Avery Canavan | 6.3% | 4.6% | 6.4% | 8.3% | 6.4% | 10.2% | 10.8% | 9.4% | 9.7% | 8.8% | 7.1% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 2.0% | 0.7% |
| Annika VanderHorst | 2.0% | 1.8% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 9.1% | 12.9% | 13.5% | 13.0% | 7.3% |
| Gianna Dewey | 2.6% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 6.3% | 8.9% | 7.3% | 9.4% | 9.5% | 11.3% | 9.4% | 9.1% | 8.7% | 4.4% | 1.2% |
| Eva DeCastro | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 8.7% | 12.7% | 10.7% | 11.4% | 9.5% | 5.7% |
| Grace Watlington | 3.0% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 10.4% | 9.0% | 9.9% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 6.8% | 3.1% |
| Isabelle Gautier | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 12.4% | 13.6% | 18.1% | 14.8% |
| Imogene Nuss | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 6.3% | 9.4% | 16.9% | 46.7% |
| Cho-Cho Williams | 2.6% | 3.4% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 12.0% | 11.4% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 2.9% |
| Carly Mraz | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 10.9% | 12.9% | 18.0% | 15.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.