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📊 Prediction Accuracy
40.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Cornell University2.69+2.47vs Predicted
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2University of Pennsylvania2.06+2.86vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy2.40+1.10vs Predicted
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4U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.29+6.17vs Predicted
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5St. Mary's College of Maryland0.75+3.78vs Predicted
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6Georgetown University2.55-2.28vs Predicted
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7George Washington University1.26+0.21vs Predicted
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8Fordham University0.99+0.12vs Predicted
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9Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.28-1.93vs Predicted
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10Christopher Newport University0.79-1.25vs Predicted
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11Old Dominion University0.81-2.38vs Predicted
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12Princeton University-0.09-0.55vs Predicted
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13Columbia University0.45-3.11vs Predicted
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14SUNY Maritime College-0.02-2.98vs Predicted
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15Washington College-0.80-2.23vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.47Cornell University2.690.2%1st Place
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4.86University of Pennsylvania2.060.1%1st Place
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4.1U. S. Naval Academy2.400.2%1st Place
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10.17U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.290.0%1st Place
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8.78St. Mary's College of Maryland0.750.0%1st Place
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3.72Georgetown University2.550.2%1st Place
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7.21George Washington University1.260.1%1st Place
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8.12Fordham University0.990.0%1st Place
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7.07Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.280.1%1st Place
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8.75Christopher Newport University0.790.0%1st Place
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8.62Old Dominion University0.810.0%1st Place
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11.45Princeton University-0.090.0%1st Place
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9.89Columbia University0.450.0%1st Place
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11.02SUNY Maritime College-0.020.0%1st Place
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12.77Washington College-0.800.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bridget Green | 22.5% | 20.1% | 16.2% | 14.0% | 8.4% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 3.0% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sofia Segalla | 10.2% | 16.1% | 11.4% | 12.0% | 12.5% | 10.4% | 8.8% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Eva Blauvelt | 17.3% | 12.9% | 16.8% | 14.1% | 10.7% | 10.3% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Annika VanderHorst | 1.6% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 8.5% | 9.2% | 8.4% | 11.4% | 12.6% | 11.3% | 9.1% |
| Cho-Cho Williams | 3.5% | 3.3% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 9.2% | 8.0% | 9.6% | 12.1% | 10.0% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 2.7% |
| Piper Holthus | 17.7% | 20.5% | 14.5% | 15.0% | 9.8% | 9.5% | 6.4% | 3.6% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Avery Canavan | 6.5% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 7.9% | 11.5% | 9.8% | 9.7% | 10.3% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 2.0% | 0.2% |
| Lizzie Cochran | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 10.9% | 10.2% | 9.5% | 8.1% | 5.6% | 4.0% | 1.6% |
| Elizabeth Starck | 5.0% | 4.9% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 9.9% | 10.3% | 9.7% | 9.4% | 10.1% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 1.6% | 0.5% |
| Grace Watlington | 2.7% | 2.9% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 8.9% | 9.1% | 10.9% | 10.8% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 5.8% | 2.6% |
| Gianna Dewey | 3.4% | 2.9% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 8.7% | 8.5% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 8.7% | 9.3% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 2.8% |
| Carly Mraz | 1.8% | 0.6% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 10.9% | 15.1% | 17.8% | 17.0% |
| Eva DeCastro | 2.0% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 8.5% | 9.0% | 11.2% | 12.8% | 10.7% | 9.1% | 7.6% |
| Isabelle Gautier | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 11.0% | 14.2% | 17.3% | 13.5% |
| Imogene Nuss | 0.7% | 0.4% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 9.9% | 18.0% | 42.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.