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📊 Prediction Accuracy
66.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy2.40+3.02vs Predicted
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2Columbia University0.45+7.53vs Predicted
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3Cornell University2.69+0.40vs Predicted
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4University of Pennsylvania2.06+0.92vs Predicted
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5Georgetown University2.55-1.18vs Predicted
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6Fordham University0.99+2.10vs Predicted
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7George Washington University1.26+0.25vs Predicted
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8Old Dominion University0.81+0.61vs Predicted
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9Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.28-1.89vs Predicted
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10Princeton University-0.09+1.30vs Predicted
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11St. Mary's College of Maryland0.75-2.22vs Predicted
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12U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.29-1.56vs Predicted
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13SUNY Maritime College-0.02-1.74vs Predicted
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14Washington College-0.80-1.12vs Predicted
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15Christopher Newport University0.79-6.40vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.02U. S. Naval Academy2.400.2%1st Place
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9.53Columbia University0.450.0%1st Place
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3.4Cornell University2.690.2%1st Place
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4.92University of Pennsylvania2.060.1%1st Place
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3.82Georgetown University2.550.2%1st Place
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8.1Fordham University0.990.0%1st Place
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7.25George Washington University1.260.1%1st Place
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8.61Old Dominion University0.810.0%1st Place
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7.11Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.280.0%1st Place
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11.3Princeton University-0.090.0%1st Place
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8.78St. Mary's College of Maryland0.750.0%1st Place
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10.44U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.290.0%1st Place
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11.26SUNY Maritime College-0.020.0%1st Place
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12.88Washington College-0.800.0%1st Place
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8.6Christopher Newport University0.790.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eva Blauvelt | 18.4% | 16.0% | 15.7% | 12.0% | 11.9% | 9.1% | 6.5% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Eva DeCastro | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 9.1% | 9.2% | 9.7% | 9.2% | 10.1% | 10.2% | 10.0% | 5.1% |
| Bridget Green | 22.3% | 19.2% | 17.5% | 12.9% | 11.3% | 7.1% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sofia Segalla | 11.9% | 12.7% | 12.5% | 11.4% | 11.9% | 10.9% | 8.7% | 7.8% | 5.1% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Piper Holthus | 17.7% | 17.5% | 16.6% | 14.3% | 11.4% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 4.4% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lizzie Cochran | 3.4% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 8.1% | 9.1% | 9.9% | 11.5% | 10.9% | 7.2% | 9.2% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 1.2% |
| Avery Canavan | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 9.3% | 10.1% | 10.6% | 9.6% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 1.9% | 0.7% |
| Gianna Dewey | 3.9% | 2.7% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 8.9% | 10.4% | 11.6% | 10.1% | 7.5% | 5.0% | 2.1% |
| Elizabeth Starck | 4.3% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 8.5% | 8.7% | 10.3% | 9.3% | 10.6% | 9.0% | 9.5% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 3.1% | 1.7% | 0.4% |
| Carly Mraz | 1.2% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 5.0% | 3.4% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 9.1% | 14.0% | 18.0% | 17.2% |
| Cho-Cho Williams | 2.8% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 9.9% | 10.4% | 7.9% | 10.2% | 9.2% | 5.8% | 3.3% |
| Annika VanderHorst | 2.1% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 5.4% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 8.6% | 10.7% | 9.9% | 14.9% | 13.2% | 8.3% |
| Isabelle Gautier | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 6.7% | 8.7% | 11.0% | 14.4% | 18.0% | 15.4% |
| Imogene Nuss | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 10.4% | 15.7% | 44.5% |
| Grace Watlington | 2.8% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 9.6% | 12.3% | 10.1% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 1.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.