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📊 Prediction Accuracy
53.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Pennsylvania2.06+3.89vs Predicted
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2U. S. Naval Academy2.40+1.99vs Predicted
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3Christopher Newport University0.79+5.56vs Predicted
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4Old Dominion University0.81+4.59vs Predicted
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5Cornell University2.69-1.42vs Predicted
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6Georgetown University2.55-2.22vs Predicted
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7Columbia University0.45+2.58vs Predicted
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8George Washington University1.26-0.77vs Predicted
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9Fordham University0.99-0.96vs Predicted
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10St. Mary's College of Maryland0.75-1.10vs Predicted
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11Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.28-3.80vs Predicted
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12U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.29-1.58vs Predicted
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13Princeton University-0.09-1.57vs Predicted
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14Washington College-0.80-1.17vs Predicted
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15SUNY Maritime College-0.02-4.02vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.89University of Pennsylvania2.060.1%1st Place
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3.99U. S. Naval Academy2.400.2%1st Place
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8.56Christopher Newport University0.790.0%1st Place
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8.59Old Dominion University0.810.0%1st Place
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3.58Cornell University2.690.2%1st Place
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3.78Georgetown University2.550.2%1st Place
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9.58Columbia University0.450.0%1st Place
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7.23George Washington University1.260.1%1st Place
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8.04Fordham University0.990.0%1st Place
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8.9St. Mary's College of Maryland0.750.0%1st Place
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7.2Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.280.1%1st Place
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10.42U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.290.0%1st Place
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11.43Princeton University-0.090.0%1st Place
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12.83Washington College-0.800.0%1st Place
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10.98SUNY Maritime College-0.020.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sofia Segalla | 12.5% | 13.1% | 13.4% | 11.6% | 11.1% | 9.6% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Eva Blauvelt | 16.8% | 17.8% | 14.0% | 14.3% | 11.5% | 8.8% | 6.9% | 4.6% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Grace Watlington | 3.2% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 8.3% | 9.9% | 8.6% | 10.5% | 9.6% | 10.3% | 7.2% | 5.4% | 2.0% |
| Gianna Dewey | 2.9% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 10.4% | 9.9% | 9.7% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 2.3% |
| Bridget Green | 21.9% | 18.3% | 15.7% | 12.9% | 12.0% | 7.2% | 4.8% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Piper Holthus | 17.8% | 17.9% | 16.5% | 14.7% | 11.4% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 4.0% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Eva DeCastro | 3.0% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 10.4% | 10.6% | 12.0% | 9.7% | 9.7% | 5.3% |
| Avery Canavan | 5.7% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 8.3% | 9.6% | 9.1% | 10.2% | 9.9% | 10.2% | 7.5% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 1.5% | 0.8% |
| Lizzie Cochran | 3.8% | 3.3% | 4.6% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 9.3% | 9.4% | 9.6% | 10.1% | 8.3% | 10.4% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 3.4% | 0.9% |
| Cho-Cho Williams | 2.7% | 2.2% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 11.6% | 8.1% | 11.2% | 9.1% | 8.9% | 6.4% | 2.8% |
| Elizabeth Starck | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 9.1% | 9.2% | 7.6% | 10.8% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 2.0% | 0.9% |
| Annika VanderHorst | 1.9% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 10.3% | 11.2% | 13.7% | 13.0% | 8.5% |
| Carly Mraz | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 10.8% | 14.0% | 18.4% | 18.4% |
| Imogene Nuss | 0.4% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 7.6% | 10.2% | 15.6% | 43.6% |
| Isabelle Gautier | 1.3% | 1.6% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 9.0% | 14.2% | 18.1% | 14.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.