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📊 Prediction Accuracy
73.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy1.19+5.52vs Predicted
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2Columbia University0.63+6.07vs Predicted
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3Georgetown University2.37+0.48vs Predicted
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4Old Dominion University1.63+1.30vs Predicted
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5Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.34+1.26vs Predicted
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6Cornell University2.32-2.37vs Predicted
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7George Washington University1.22-0.53vs Predicted
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8University of Pennsylvania1.41-1.99vs Predicted
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9St. Mary's College of Maryland0.97-1.82vs Predicted
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10SUNY Maritime College-0.37+1.05vs Predicted
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11Fordham University0.10-1.19vs Predicted
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12U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.15-1.30vs Predicted
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13Christopher Newport University0.37-3.80vs Predicted
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14Princeton University-0.92-1.76vs Predicted
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15Washington College-2.16-0.92vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.52U. S. Naval Academy1.190.1%1st Place
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8.07Columbia University0.630.0%1st Place
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3.48Georgetown University2.370.2%1st Place
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5.3Old Dominion University1.630.1%1st Place
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6.26Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.340.1%1st Place
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3.63Cornell University2.320.2%1st Place
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6.47George Washington University1.220.1%1st Place
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6.01University of Pennsylvania1.410.1%1st Place
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7.18St. Mary's College of Maryland0.970.0%1st Place
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11.05SUNY Maritime College-0.370.0%1st Place
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9.81Fordham University0.100.0%1st Place
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10.7U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.150.0%1st Place
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9.2Christopher Newport University0.370.0%1st Place
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12.24Princeton University-0.920.0%1st Place
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14.08Washington College-2.160.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ava Farley | 7.9% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 10.2% | 9.2% | 9.6% | 8.4% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Elizabeth Frost | 3.5% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 9.6% | 12.2% | 8.4% | 6.2% | 2.9% | 0.5% |
| Kelly Bates | 22.1% | 19.1% | 17.3% | 12.4% | 10.2% | 7.8% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Marina Conde | 11.6% | 10.3% | 10.7% | 11.5% | 11.3% | 10.3% | 9.7% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 5.0% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Deana Fedulova | 7.4% | 7.9% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 10.2% | 9.4% | 10.5% | 9.6% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 4.6% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Sophia Devling | 18.7% | 19.8% | 18.4% | 11.9% | 9.8% | 9.7% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Arrieta Angueira Salbidegoitia | 8.1% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 9.9% | 10.7% | 9.2% | 9.8% | 8.4% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Adra Ivancich | 7.5% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 11.6% | 9.3% | 9.6% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 7.2% | 5.2% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Lina Carper | 4.5% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 8.9% | 8.4% | 9.5% | 9.1% | 9.9% | 10.0% | 9.6% | 8.6% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 1.2% | 0.2% |
| Nicole Ostapowicz | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 4.9% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 10.1% | 12.3% | 17.7% | 20.5% | 6.0% |
| Lauren Murray | 2.1% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 3.0% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 9.4% | 11.4% | 15.4% | 12.1% | 9.2% | 3.4% |
| Katherine Mason | 1.6% | 0.9% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 9.1% | 10.1% | 14.4% | 20.3% | 14.4% | 3.2% |
| Laura Smith | 2.7% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 9.7% | 13.2% | 13.6% | 11.3% | 6.1% | 0.9% |
| Evelyn Walsh | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 3.4% | 5.4% | 7.7% | 10.7% | 16.0% | 30.4% | 15.6% |
| Nora Ciak | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 12.7% | 69.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.