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📊 Prediction Accuracy
40.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Cornell University2.32+2.62vs Predicted
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2Old Dominion University1.63+3.26vs Predicted
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3Columbia University0.63+5.11vs Predicted
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4St. Mary's College of Maryland0.97+3.22vs Predicted
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5George Washington University1.22+1.53vs Predicted
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6Georgetown University2.37-2.50vs Predicted
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7University of Pennsylvania1.41-1.10vs Predicted
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8U. S. Naval Academy1.19-1.36vs Predicted
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9SUNY Maritime College-0.37+2.02vs Predicted
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10Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.34-3.74vs Predicted
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11U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.15-0.52vs Predicted
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12Fordham University0.10-2.01vs Predicted
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13Christopher Newport University0.37-3.83vs Predicted
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14Princeton University-0.92-1.78vs Predicted
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15Washington College-2.16-0.92vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.62Cornell University2.320.2%1st Place
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5.26Old Dominion University1.630.1%1st Place
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8.11Columbia University0.630.0%1st Place
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7.22St. Mary's College of Maryland0.970.1%1st Place
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6.53George Washington University1.220.1%1st Place
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3.5Georgetown University2.370.2%1st Place
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5.9University of Pennsylvania1.410.1%1st Place
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6.64U. S. Naval Academy1.190.1%1st Place
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11.02SUNY Maritime College-0.370.0%1st Place
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6.26Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.340.1%1st Place
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10.48U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.150.0%1st Place
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9.99Fordham University0.100.0%1st Place
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9.17Christopher Newport University0.370.0%1st Place
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12.22Princeton University-0.920.0%1st Place
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14.08Washington College-2.160.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sophia Devling | 21.2% | 19.5% | 16.3% | 12.2% | 9.9% | 8.4% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Marina Conde | 9.7% | 13.0% | 10.4% | 12.9% | 9.9% | 10.5% | 9.6% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Frost | 4.3% | 3.8% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 10.3% | 10.6% | 9.9% | 10.4% | 5.7% | 3.1% | 0.4% |
| Lina Carper | 5.2% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 8.7% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 10.9% | 9.5% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 6.2% | 4.0% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| Arrieta Angueira Salbidegoitia | 7.3% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 10.1% | 8.7% | 9.2% | 10.9% | 9.6% | 8.1% | 6.0% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Kelly Bates | 21.4% | 18.5% | 18.6% | 12.8% | 11.0% | 7.0% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Adra Ivancich | 9.7% | 7.3% | 8.7% | 10.1% | 11.4% | 10.4% | 11.1% | 9.0% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 4.8% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Ava Farley | 7.1% | 6.0% | 8.4% | 8.7% | 8.5% | 9.0% | 8.7% | 10.9% | 10.2% | 9.5% | 6.3% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Nicole Ostapowicz | 0.9% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 8.4% | 9.6% | 14.7% | 18.8% | 17.8% | 5.5% |
| Deana Fedulova | 6.4% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 9.7% | 11.3% | 8.8% | 11.9% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Katherine Mason | 1.5% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 8.7% | 11.0% | 11.9% | 17.8% | 12.9% | 5.9% |
| Lauren Murray | 2.1% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 3.5% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 8.1% | 9.1% | 11.6% | 14.9% | 14.1% | 11.7% | 1.4% |
| Laura Smith | 2.4% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 10.5% | 12.8% | 12.4% | 10.9% | 7.2% | 0.5% |
| Evelyn Walsh | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 1.6% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 4.7% | 7.8% | 10.7% | 15.6% | 30.1% | 16.1% |
| Nora Ciak | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 1.2% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 4.6% | 13.2% | 69.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.