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📊 Prediction Accuracy
46.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.34+5.05vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University2.37+1.49vs Predicted
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3George Washington University1.22+3.38vs Predicted
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4St. Mary's College of Maryland0.97+3.26vs Predicted
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5U. S. Naval Academy1.19+1.69vs Predicted
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6University of Pennsylvania1.41-0.07vs Predicted
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7Cornell University2.32-3.37vs Predicted
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8SUNY Maritime College-0.37+3.05vs Predicted
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9Old Dominion University1.63-3.74vs Predicted
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10Columbia University0.63-1.67vs Predicted
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11Fordham University0.10-1.19vs Predicted
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12Christopher Newport University0.37-2.72vs Predicted
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13Princeton University-0.92-0.62vs Predicted
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14U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.15-3.59vs Predicted
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15Washington College-2.16-0.94vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.05Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.340.1%1st Place
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3.49Georgetown University2.370.2%1st Place
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6.38George Washington University1.220.1%1st Place
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7.26St. Mary's College of Maryland0.970.0%1st Place
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6.69U. S. Naval Academy1.190.1%1st Place
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5.93University of Pennsylvania1.410.1%1st Place
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3.63Cornell University2.320.2%1st Place
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11.05SUNY Maritime College-0.370.0%1st Place
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5.26Old Dominion University1.630.1%1st Place
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8.33Columbia University0.630.0%1st Place
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9.81Fordham University0.100.0%1st Place
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9.28Christopher Newport University0.370.0%1st Place
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12.38Princeton University-0.920.0%1st Place
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10.41U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.150.0%1st Place
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14.06Washington College-2.160.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deana Fedulova | 8.4% | 9.1% | 9.1% | 9.0% | 9.6% | 11.3% | 9.1% | 9.5% | 8.2% | 6.4% | 4.7% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Kelly Bates | 23.7% | 19.6% | 15.6% | 11.8% | 9.4% | 8.1% | 4.7% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Arrieta Angueira Salbidegoitia | 6.8% | 7.8% | 10.5% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 9.1% | 9.4% | 11.4% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Lina Carper | 4.6% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 9.7% | 6.7% | 11.0% | 10.5% | 9.1% | 9.4% | 6.1% | 3.9% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Ava Farley | 6.3% | 8.4% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 8.4% | 9.7% | 8.2% | 11.9% | 10.6% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 4.9% | 2.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Adra Ivancich | 7.2% | 9.5% | 7.1% | 11.6% | 11.5% | 10.5% | 11.4% | 9.3% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Sophia Devling | 20.5% | 18.8% | 16.5% | 14.4% | 9.5% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicole Ostapowicz | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 6.2% | 8.1% | 9.0% | 13.6% | 18.8% | 18.9% | 6.6% |
| Marina Conde | 10.8% | 9.6% | 12.7% | 10.2% | 12.5% | 9.0% | 11.9% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 3.7% | 3.0% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Frost | 3.4% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 7.8% | 6.1% | 8.5% | 9.1% | 10.0% | 11.5% | 11.1% | 10.2% | 6.0% | 3.1% | 0.8% |
| Lauren Murray | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 6.9% | 5.0% | 7.2% | 10.9% | 12.3% | 14.3% | 13.1% | 8.6% | 3.2% |
| Laura Smith | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 5.3% | 9.5% | 11.4% | 13.4% | 11.4% | 13.0% | 5.7% | 0.6% |
| Evelyn Walsh | 0.6% | 0.2% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 10.4% | 15.0% | 32.5% | 17.8% |
| Katherine Mason | 1.7% | 1.4% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 8.6% | 10.4% | 15.5% | 16.5% | 14.3% | 2.7% |
| Nora Ciak | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 6.7% | 13.6% | 67.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.