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📊 Prediction Accuracy
53.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Pennsylvania1.41+4.84vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University2.37+1.45vs Predicted
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3Cornell University2.32+0.58vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.34+2.14vs Predicted
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5Old Dominion University1.63+0.38vs Predicted
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6SUNY Maritime College-0.37+5.02vs Predicted
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7U. S. Naval Academy1.19-0.41vs Predicted
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8U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.15+2.44vs Predicted
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9Columbia University0.63-0.81vs Predicted
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10Christopher Newport University0.37-0.94vs Predicted
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11George Washington University1.22-4.46vs Predicted
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12Fordham University0.10-1.99vs Predicted
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13St. Mary's College of Maryland0.97-5.53vs Predicted
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14Washington College-2.16+0.11vs Predicted
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15Princeton University-0.92-2.80vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.84University of Pennsylvania1.410.1%1st Place
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3.45Georgetown University2.370.2%1st Place
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3.58Cornell University2.320.2%1st Place
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6.14Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.340.1%1st Place
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5.38Old Dominion University1.630.1%1st Place
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11.02SUNY Maritime College-0.370.0%1st Place
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6.59U. S. Naval Academy1.190.1%1st Place
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10.44U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.150.0%1st Place
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8.19Columbia University0.630.0%1st Place
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9.06Christopher Newport University0.370.0%1st Place
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6.54George Washington University1.220.1%1st Place
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10.01Fordham University0.100.0%1st Place
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7.47St. Mary's College of Maryland0.970.0%1st Place
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14.11Washington College-2.160.0%1st Place
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12.2Princeton University-0.920.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adra Ivancich | 9.4% | 8.1% | 11.3% | 9.3% | 10.5% | 9.9% | 10.2% | 8.9% | 7.9% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Kelly Bates | 22.4% | 20.4% | 15.8% | 11.8% | 11.4% | 7.7% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sophia Devling | 21.1% | 19.3% | 16.4% | 13.3% | 9.7% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 4.1% | 2.6% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Deana Fedulova | 7.6% | 7.5% | 10.2% | 10.4% | 8.7% | 10.0% | 10.6% | 9.1% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Marina Conde | 9.9% | 10.7% | 9.6% | 12.5% | 11.6% | 11.1% | 9.3% | 8.7% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 2.7% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Nicole Ostapowicz | 0.9% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 9.7% | 8.1% | 15.0% | 18.4% | 19.0% | 5.9% |
| Ava Farley | 7.3% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 9.8% | 9.4% | 10.3% | 10.5% | 9.3% | 8.7% | 6.2% | 4.3% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Katherine Mason | 1.9% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 12.5% | 14.1% | 15.9% | 14.8% | 3.6% |
| Elizabeth Frost | 2.9% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 10.0% | 10.9% | 10.9% | 10.3% | 9.1% | 6.8% | 2.4% | 0.4% |
| Laura Smith | 3.0% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 8.4% | 9.4% | 11.8% | 11.2% | 12.4% | 9.1% | 5.4% | 1.8% |
| Arrieta Angueira Salbidegoitia | 5.6% | 9.5% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 9.5% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 4.8% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Lauren Murray | 2.3% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 13.1% | 14.6% | 16.3% | 8.4% | 2.5% |
| Lina Carper | 4.9% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 9.3% | 9.1% | 12.5% | 10.0% | 8.4% | 7.3% | 4.3% | 1.4% | 0.1% |
| Nora Ciak | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 5.9% | 13.1% | 69.7% |
| Evelyn Walsh | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 4.0% | 7.5% | 9.1% | 15.3% | 32.5% | 15.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.