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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Cornell University2.32+2.61vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University2.37+1.44vs Predicted
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3George Washington University1.22+3.32vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.34+2.16vs Predicted
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5Fordham University-0.08+5.23vs Predicted
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6Columbia University0.63+2.18vs Predicted
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7University of Pennsylvania1.41-1.08vs Predicted
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8SUNY Maritime College-0.37+3.00vs Predicted
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9U. S. Naval Academy1.19-2.45vs Predicted
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10St. Mary's College of Maryland0.97-2.69vs Predicted
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11Old Dominion University1.63-5.67vs Predicted
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12U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.15-1.41vs Predicted
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13Christopher Newport University0.37-3.85vs Predicted
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14Princeton University-0.92-1.84vs Predicted
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15Washington College-2.16-0.96vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.61Cornell University2.320.2%1st Place
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3.44Georgetown University2.370.2%1st Place
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6.32George Washington University1.220.1%1st Place
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6.16Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.340.1%1st Place
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10.23Fordham University-0.080.0%1st Place
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8.18Columbia University0.630.0%1st Place
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5.92University of Pennsylvania1.410.1%1st Place
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11.0SUNY Maritime College-0.370.0%1st Place
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6.55U. S. Naval Academy1.190.1%1st Place
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7.31St. Mary's College of Maryland0.970.0%1st Place
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5.33Old Dominion University1.630.1%1st Place
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10.59U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.150.0%1st Place
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9.15Christopher Newport University0.370.0%1st Place
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12.16Princeton University-0.920.0%1st Place
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14.04Washington College-2.160.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sophia Devling | 21.7% | 19.7% | 14.0% | 13.2% | 10.3% | 9.3% | 4.7% | 3.3% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kelly Bates | 22.9% | 21.1% | 15.5% | 11.5% | 10.0% | 7.7% | 5.5% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Arrieta Angueira Salbidegoitia | 6.8% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 9.5% | 9.4% | 9.4% | 10.6% | 10.8% | 9.3% | 8.3% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Deana Fedulova | 7.7% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 10.2% | 10.3% | 9.8% | 8.5% | 11.3% | 9.0% | 7.1% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Anna Robertson | 1.6% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 10.7% | 15.5% | 16.8% | 12.1% | 3.4% |
| Elizabeth Frost | 3.5% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 9.9% | 11.7% | 11.3% | 10.4% | 9.1% | 6.8% | 2.2% | 0.5% |
| Adra Ivancich | 9.8% | 7.2% | 9.3% | 10.0% | 10.2% | 10.4% | 10.7% | 9.6% | 8.6% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Nicole Ostapowicz | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 10.5% | 13.9% | 18.2% | 17.5% | 6.8% |
| Ava Farley | 5.6% | 6.2% | 8.5% | 9.9% | 9.5% | 9.7% | 11.2% | 8.2% | 10.6% | 8.4% | 6.2% | 4.2% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Lina Carper | 3.9% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 9.1% | 8.0% | 10.4% | 10.3% | 9.8% | 10.3% | 8.6% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 1.4% | 0.1% |
| Marina Conde | 10.4% | 10.5% | 14.0% | 10.8% | 9.5% | 9.5% | 9.6% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 3.2% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Katherine Mason | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 8.0% | 12.8% | 13.7% | 17.1% | 15.2% | 3.5% |
| Laura Smith | 2.2% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 11.8% | 14.1% | 13.3% | 9.9% | 6.3% | 0.7% |
| Evelyn Walsh | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 10.2% | 15.8% | 29.7% | 15.6% |
| Nora Ciak | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 13.2% | 69.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.