Race 1A

women-regis-bowl

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

38.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Natalie Salk 13.1% 12.2% 13.0% 8.9% 11.6% 10.2% 9.5% 6.6% 5.4% 4.9% 3.2% 1.1% 0.3%
Kelsey Wheeler 9.0% 9.6% 9.9% 10.2% 9.4% 10.3% 8.8% 8.4% 6.9% 8.7% 4.1% 3.9% 0.8%
Alexandra Arntsen 5.6% 5.6% 9.3% 8.0% 9.5% 9.1% 7.6% 10.4% 9.1% 8.8% 9.3% 6.1% 1.6%
Katii Gullick 6.9% 7.7% 8.1% 9.4% 8.6% 7.7% 10.7% 9.4% 8.2% 7.4% 8.7% 6.4% 0.8%
Jessica Claflin 8.4% 7.9% 10.2% 9.2% 8.2% 8.5% 9.8% 7.8% 9.6% 7.3% 6.8% 5.0% 1.3%
Amy Hawkins 20.3% 19.5% 13.1% 11.9% 10.7% 8.3% 5.9% 4.2% 3.4% 1.4% 0.6% 0.6% 0.1%
Abby Preston 7.0% 5.9% 6.3% 6.4% 6.2% 6.9% 9.5% 8.4% 8.8% 10.5% 11.4% 9.8% 2.9%
Caitlin Watson 5.0% 5.1% 5.4% 5.8% 7.1% 7.0% 7.8% 9.8% 9.9% 9.6% 12.5% 10.6% 4.4%
Emily McNeil 3.9% 4.4% 3.3% 4.1% 4.5% 6.2% 5.3% 7.1% 8.9% 12.1% 11.5% 20.4% 8.3%
Emily Billing 11.3% 11.1% 10.0% 11.0% 9.6% 9.6% 9.5% 7.5% 6.9% 5.0% 4.8% 3.3% 0.4%
Devon Rohde 4.0% 3.9% 5.4% 6.6% 5.9% 7.0% 6.2% 9.7% 10.8% 9.6% 12.8% 13.1% 5.0%
Brooke Doyon 0.4% 0.7% 0.4% 0.8% 1.5% 1.4% 1.1% 1.8% 1.6% 3.1% 5.6% 10.1% 71.5%
Elizabeth Glivinski 5.1% 6.4% 5.6% 7.7% 7.2% 7.8% 8.3% 8.9% 10.5% 11.6% 8.7% 9.6% 2.6%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.