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📊 Prediction Accuracy
53.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1George Washington University1.22+5.41vs Predicted
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2Cornell University2.32+1.55vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland0.97+4.12vs Predicted
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4Old Dominion University1.63+1.32vs Predicted
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5Christopher Newport University0.37+4.01vs Predicted
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6Georgetown University2.37-2.42vs Predicted
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7University of Pennsylvania1.41-1.10vs Predicted
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8Columbia University0.63+0.21vs Predicted
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9Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.34-2.89vs Predicted
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10Fordham University-0.08+0.26vs Predicted
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11U. S. Naval Academy1.19-4.36vs Predicted
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12SUNY Maritime College-0.37-0.83vs Predicted
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13Princeton University-0.92-0.68vs Predicted
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14U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.15-3.62vs Predicted
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15Washington College-2.16-0.97vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.41George Washington University1.220.1%1st Place
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3.55Cornell University2.320.2%1st Place
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7.12St. Mary's College of Maryland0.970.1%1st Place
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5.32Old Dominion University1.630.1%1st Place
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9.01Christopher Newport University0.370.0%1st Place
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3.58Georgetown University2.370.2%1st Place
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5.9University of Pennsylvania1.410.1%1st Place
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8.21Columbia University0.630.0%1st Place
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6.11Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.340.1%1st Place
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10.26Fordham University-0.080.0%1st Place
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6.64U. S. Naval Academy1.190.1%1st Place
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11.17SUNY Maritime College-0.370.0%1st Place
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12.32Princeton University-0.920.0%1st Place
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10.38U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.150.0%1st Place
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14.03Washington College-2.160.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arrieta Angueira Salbidegoitia | 7.1% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 9.7% | 10.0% | 9.5% | 10.2% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.2% |
| Sophia Devling | 20.4% | 21.0% | 15.5% | 13.8% | 9.5% | 8.4% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lina Carper | 5.4% | 5.6% | 7.9% | 5.9% | 9.2% | 7.4% | 9.5% | 10.2% | 11.9% | 9.0% | 8.3% | 5.7% | 3.2% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| Marina Conde | 11.2% | 10.3% | 11.0% | 11.1% | 10.9% | 10.5% | 9.9% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 4.8% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Laura Smith | 2.4% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 5.2% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 10.9% | 13.6% | 12.3% | 10.0% | 5.8% | 1.1% |
| Kelly Bates | 19.6% | 20.1% | 16.2% | 13.8% | 11.1% | 7.3% | 5.6% | 3.1% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Adra Ivancich | 9.6% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 10.9% | 10.3% | 11.9% | 10.3% | 10.2% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Elizabeth Frost | 4.1% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 9.6% | 9.6% | 11.0% | 12.7% | 10.1% | 5.1% | 2.8% | 0.8% |
| Deana Fedulova | 7.3% | 8.0% | 8.7% | 9.9% | 10.1% | 10.2% | 11.3% | 9.4% | 8.9% | 8.0% | 4.6% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Anna Robertson | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 8.7% | 9.9% | 11.0% | 14.3% | 18.0% | 9.0% | 4.1% |
| Ava Farley | 7.0% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 10.0% | 8.3% | 10.0% | 9.1% | 9.5% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 4.6% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| Nicole Ostapowicz | 1.3% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 9.3% | 13.8% | 20.2% | 19.2% | 5.5% |
| Evelyn Walsh | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 6.3% | 9.5% | 16.2% | 30.2% | 18.0% |
| Katherine Mason | 1.8% | 1.2% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 8.6% | 10.2% | 17.1% | 15.3% | 13.7% | 2.9% |
| Nora Ciak | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 3.5% | 5.6% | 15.4% | 66.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.