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📊 Prediction Accuracy
60.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.34+5.05vs Predicted
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2Christopher Newport University0.37+6.81vs Predicted
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3Cornell University2.32+0.52vs Predicted
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4Georgetown University2.37-0.43vs Predicted
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5George Washington University1.22+1.53vs Predicted
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6Old Dominion University1.63-0.70vs Predicted
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7St. Mary's College of Maryland0.97+0.23vs Predicted
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8University of Pennsylvania1.41-2.04vs Predicted
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9U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.15+1.40vs Predicted
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10SUNY Maritime College-0.37+1.02vs Predicted
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11U. S. Naval Academy1.19-4.39vs Predicted
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12Columbia University0.63-3.60vs Predicted
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13Princeton University-0.92-0.68vs Predicted
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14Fordham University-0.08-3.79vs Predicted
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15Washington College-2.16-0.94vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.05Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.340.1%1st Place
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8.81Christopher Newport University0.370.0%1st Place
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3.52Cornell University2.320.2%1st Place
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3.57Georgetown University2.370.2%1st Place
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6.53George Washington University1.220.1%1st Place
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5.3Old Dominion University1.630.1%1st Place
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7.23St. Mary's College of Maryland0.970.1%1st Place
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5.96University of Pennsylvania1.410.1%1st Place
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10.4U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.150.0%1st Place
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11.02SUNY Maritime College-0.370.0%1st Place
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6.61U. S. Naval Academy1.190.1%1st Place
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8.4Columbia University0.630.0%1st Place
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12.32Princeton University-0.920.0%1st Place
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10.21Fordham University-0.080.0%1st Place
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14.06Washington College-2.160.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deana Fedulova | 9.4% | 8.0% | 9.1% | 10.0% | 8.7% | 10.4% | 10.5% | 7.7% | 9.7% | 6.3% | 4.6% | 3.5% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Laura Smith | 3.1% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 12.1% | 12.0% | 10.4% | 9.9% | 4.8% | 0.6% |
| Sophia Devling | 22.4% | 17.9% | 16.0% | 13.2% | 12.2% | 8.0% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kelly Bates | 20.8% | 18.7% | 17.4% | 11.9% | 12.1% | 6.9% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Arrieta Angueira Salbidegoitia | 6.5% | 9.2% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 9.1% | 11.8% | 9.1% | 9.9% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 4.1% | 2.0% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Marina Conde | 10.4% | 10.0% | 11.3% | 11.5% | 12.6% | 10.4% | 9.1% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Lina Carper | 6.3% | 4.7% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 9.2% | 9.1% | 9.8% | 9.3% | 9.5% | 8.7% | 6.9% | 3.3% | 1.4% | 0.2% |
| Adra Ivancich | 7.7% | 9.5% | 10.1% | 8.7% | 10.2% | 10.9% | 9.4% | 9.3% | 8.9% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Katherine Mason | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 9.9% | 12.1% | 14.2% | 15.5% | 13.4% | 3.3% |
| Nicole Ostapowicz | 1.3% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 10.1% | 13.0% | 20.0% | 17.2% | 6.4% |
| Ava Farley | 6.1% | 8.9% | 6.8% | 10.0% | 7.9% | 9.1% | 10.0% | 10.7% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 4.7% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 0.2% |
| Elizabeth Frost | 2.8% | 3.4% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 8.9% | 10.6% | 10.6% | 11.4% | 10.2% | 7.9% | 3.0% | 0.2% |
| Evelyn Walsh | 0.4% | 0.3% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 9.6% | 14.3% | 31.1% | 18.6% |
| Anna Robertson | 1.4% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 9.2% | 11.0% | 15.3% | 16.0% | 11.8% | 2.5% |
| Nora Ciak | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 14.7% | 67.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.