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📊 Prediction Accuracy
66.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.0
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Cornell University2.32+2.61vs Predicted
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2George Washington University1.22+4.39vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland0.97+4.12vs Predicted
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4Old Dominion University1.63+1.28vs Predicted
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5University of Pennsylvania1.41+0.98vs Predicted
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6Georgetown University2.37-2.49vs Predicted
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7Columbia University0.63+1.13vs Predicted
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8Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.34-1.88vs Predicted
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9Christopher Newport University0.37-0.05vs Predicted
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10Fordham University-0.08+0.25vs Predicted
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11U. S. Naval Academy1.19-4.35vs Predicted
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12U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.15-1.37vs Predicted
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13SUNY Maritime College-0.37-1.86vs Predicted
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14Princeton University-0.92-1.81vs Predicted
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15Washington College-2.16-0.95vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.61Cornell University2.320.2%1st Place
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6.39George Washington University1.220.1%1st Place
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7.12St. Mary's College of Maryland0.970.1%1st Place
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5.28Old Dominion University1.630.1%1st Place
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5.98University of Pennsylvania1.410.1%1st Place
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3.51Georgetown University2.370.2%1st Place
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8.13Columbia University0.630.0%1st Place
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6.12Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.340.1%1st Place
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8.95Christopher Newport University0.370.0%1st Place
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10.25Fordham University-0.080.0%1st Place
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6.65U. S. Naval Academy1.190.1%1st Place
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10.63U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.150.0%1st Place
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11.14SUNY Maritime College-0.370.0%1st Place
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12.19Princeton University-0.920.0%1st Place
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14.05Washington College-2.160.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sophia Devling | 20.9% | 20.6% | 16.0% | 11.4% | 10.2% | 7.8% | 5.6% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Arrieta Angueira Salbidegoitia | 6.5% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 10.6% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 10.3% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Lina Carper | 5.9% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 9.3% | 7.6% | 12.1% | 9.7% | 9.7% | 9.4% | 5.3% | 3.0% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Marina Conde | 11.1% | 10.4% | 11.2% | 10.8% | 12.0% | 10.1% | 9.9% | 8.5% | 6.4% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Adra Ivancich | 8.8% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 9.6% | 10.1% | 12.0% | 10.4% | 8.0% | 8.9% | 6.7% | 4.6% | 2.7% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Kelly Bates | 20.3% | 20.2% | 17.4% | 13.0% | 11.1% | 7.3% | 4.3% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Frost | 4.7% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 8.9% | 10.4% | 8.7% | 12.2% | 9.4% | 9.3% | 6.4% | 3.4% | 0.5% |
| Deana Fedulova | 8.1% | 7.9% | 9.6% | 9.2% | 10.3% | 8.7% | 9.6% | 9.9% | 9.6% | 8.3% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Laura Smith | 2.1% | 2.6% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 10.4% | 11.0% | 12.6% | 11.0% | 9.2% | 5.2% | 1.0% |
| Anna Robertson | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 10.1% | 10.9% | 14.3% | 16.1% | 11.6% | 3.4% |
| Ava Farley | 6.4% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 9.0% | 8.5% | 9.0% | 10.1% | 10.5% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| Katherine Mason | 1.6% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 11.9% | 14.2% | 17.6% | 15.6% | 3.1% |
| Nicole Ostapowicz | 1.3% | 0.9% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 7.0% | 8.7% | 15.1% | 19.3% | 18.6% | 7.2% |
| Evelyn Walsh | 0.6% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 5.1% | 8.8% | 10.2% | 15.4% | 29.1% | 16.3% |
| Nora Ciak | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 13.9% | 68.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.