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📊 Prediction Accuracy
40.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy1.19+5.47vs Predicted
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2University of Pennsylvania1.41+3.81vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.34+3.09vs Predicted
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4Cornell University2.32-0.36vs Predicted
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5St. Mary's College of Maryland0.97+2.29vs Predicted
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6Georgetown University2.36-2.47vs Predicted
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7Fordham University-0.08+3.14vs Predicted
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8George Washington University1.22-1.49vs Predicted
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9Old Dominion University1.63-3.72vs Predicted
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10Christopher Newport University0.37-0.93vs Predicted
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11SUNY Maritime College-0.37+0.01vs Predicted
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12Columbia University0.63-3.58vs Predicted
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13Princeton University-0.92-0.67vs Predicted
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14U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.15-3.62vs Predicted
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15Washington College-2.16-0.98vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.47U. S. Naval Academy1.190.1%1st Place
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5.81University of Pennsylvania1.410.1%1st Place
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6.09Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.340.1%1st Place
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3.64Cornell University2.320.2%1st Place
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7.29St. Mary's College of Maryland0.970.1%1st Place
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3.53Georgetown University2.360.2%1st Place
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10.14Fordham University-0.080.0%1st Place
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6.51George Washington University1.220.1%1st Place
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5.28Old Dominion University1.630.1%1st Place
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9.07Christopher Newport University0.370.0%1st Place
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11.01SUNY Maritime College-0.370.0%1st Place
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8.42Columbia University0.630.0%1st Place
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12.33Princeton University-0.920.0%1st Place
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10.38U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.150.0%1st Place
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14.02Washington College-2.160.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ava Farley | 7.7% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 9.0% | 9.3% | 11.0% | 8.9% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Adra Ivancich | 7.6% | 9.9% | 10.9% | 10.2% | 10.0% | 9.5% | 11.1% | 9.4% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 4.2% | 2.6% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Deana Fedulova | 7.8% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 9.6% | 7.3% | 12.5% | 11.1% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 3.3% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Sophia Devling | 22.5% | 17.2% | 14.5% | 13.6% | 11.3% | 7.9% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 2.6% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lina Carper | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 9.3% | 8.6% | 11.4% | 10.7% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 3.5% | 1.2% | 0.1% |
| Emily Doble | 20.0% | 19.9% | 17.3% | 13.2% | 11.2% | 7.7% | 5.0% | 2.7% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Anna Robertson | 2.6% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 6.2% | 9.0% | 8.4% | 12.5% | 13.2% | 16.4% | 12.0% | 2.4% |
| Arrieta Angueira Salbidegoitia | 7.0% | 6.6% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 10.1% | 7.6% | 9.9% | 10.2% | 9.5% | 9.3% | 6.4% | 3.5% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Marina Conde | 9.8% | 11.1% | 11.4% | 12.6% | 10.1% | 10.7% | 9.4% | 10.0% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Laura Smith | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 9.9% | 9.9% | 11.7% | 13.0% | 9.6% | 6.2% | 1.2% |
| Nicole Ostapowicz | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 10.8% | 12.4% | 17.8% | 16.6% | 8.7% |
| Elizabeth Frost | 2.7% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 5.7% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 9.5% | 10.5% | 13.1% | 10.5% | 7.5% | 2.3% | 0.4% |
| Evelyn Walsh | 0.4% | 0.5% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 3.3% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 9.0% | 14.9% | 32.5% | 17.4% |
| Katherine Mason | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 11.2% | 15.7% | 16.7% | 12.8% | 3.2% |
| Nora Ciak | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 4.4% | 7.2% | 14.1% | 66.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.