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📊 Prediction Accuracy
53.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1George Washington University1.22+5.38vs Predicted
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2SUNY Maritime College-0.37+8.78vs Predicted
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3Cornell University2.32+0.54vs Predicted
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4U. S. Naval Academy1.19+2.54vs Predicted
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5Georgetown University2.36-1.40vs Predicted
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6St. Mary's College of Maryland0.97+1.18vs Predicted
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7Columbia University0.63+1.14vs Predicted
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8Old Dominion University1.63-2.70vs Predicted
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9U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.15+1.42vs Predicted
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10University of Pennsylvania1.41-4.03vs Predicted
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11Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.34-4.80vs Predicted
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12Fordham University-0.08-1.56vs Predicted
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13Christopher Newport University0.37-3.80vs Predicted
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14Princeton University-0.92-1.79vs Predicted
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15Washington College-2.16-0.91vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.38George Washington University1.220.1%1st Place
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10.78SUNY Maritime College-0.370.0%1st Place
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3.54Cornell University2.320.2%1st Place
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6.54U. S. Naval Academy1.190.1%1st Place
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3.6Georgetown University2.360.2%1st Place
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7.18St. Mary's College of Maryland0.970.1%1st Place
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8.14Columbia University0.630.0%1st Place
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5.3Old Dominion University1.630.1%1st Place
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10.42U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.150.0%1st Place
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5.97University of Pennsylvania1.410.1%1st Place
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6.2Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.340.1%1st Place
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10.44Fordham University-0.080.0%1st Place
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9.2Christopher Newport University0.370.0%1st Place
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12.21Princeton University-0.920.0%1st Place
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14.09Washington College-2.160.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arrieta Angueira Salbidegoitia | 7.9% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 10.5% | 7.7% | 10.8% | 9.4% | 9.5% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Nicole Ostapowicz | 1.4% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 10.7% | 12.0% | 19.3% | 16.3% | 5.5% |
| Sophia Devling | 21.6% | 18.1% | 17.3% | 13.3% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 6.6% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ava Farley | 7.4% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 10.8% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 10.8% | 10.5% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| Emily Doble | 20.7% | 19.4% | 17.1% | 12.8% | 9.9% | 7.4% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lina Carper | 5.3% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 10.7% | 11.2% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 2.6% | 1.2% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Frost | 4.1% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 8.1% | 9.2% | 10.8% | 11.3% | 8.7% | 10.1% | 6.9% | 2.7% | 0.6% |
| Marina Conde | 10.6% | 11.8% | 10.6% | 9.8% | 11.6% | 10.6% | 10.2% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 4.3% | 2.7% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Katherine Mason | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 9.5% | 12.9% | 14.8% | 16.2% | 12.1% | 3.7% |
| Adra Ivancich | 8.0% | 7.2% | 10.5% | 11.0% | 9.4% | 11.2% | 11.0% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Deana Fedulova | 7.0% | 9.6% | 8.9% | 9.4% | 11.0% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 9.5% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 5.8% | 3.9% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Anna Robertson | 1.6% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 7.0% | 8.9% | 12.0% | 13.3% | 16.2% | 15.4% | 2.4% |
| Laura Smith | 2.1% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 5.6% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 11.3% | 13.8% | 12.8% | 10.4% | 7.0% | 0.8% |
| Evelyn Walsh | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 11.6% | 16.2% | 28.4% | 16.8% |
| Nora Ciak | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 13.4% | 70.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.