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📊 Prediction Accuracy
53.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University2.36+2.50vs Predicted
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2Cornell University2.32+1.52vs Predicted
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3George Washington University1.22+3.36vs Predicted
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4University of Pennsylvania1.41+1.89vs Predicted
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5Old Dominion University1.63+0.38vs Predicted
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6U. S. Naval Academy1.19+0.57vs Predicted
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7St. Mary's College of Maryland0.97+0.12vs Predicted
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8U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.15+2.45vs Predicted
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9Princeton University-0.92+3.23vs Predicted
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10Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.34-3.80vs Predicted
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11SUNY Maritime College-0.37+0.01vs Predicted
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12Fordham University-0.08-1.58vs Predicted
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13Christopher Newport University0.37-3.85vs Predicted
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14Columbia University0.63-5.87vs Predicted
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15Washington College-2.16-0.93vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.5Georgetown University2.360.2%1st Place
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3.52Cornell University2.320.2%1st Place
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6.36George Washington University1.220.1%1st Place
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5.89University of Pennsylvania1.410.1%1st Place
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5.38Old Dominion University1.630.1%1st Place
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6.57U. S. Naval Academy1.190.1%1st Place
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7.12St. Mary's College of Maryland0.970.1%1st Place
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10.45U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.150.0%1st Place
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12.23Princeton University-0.920.0%1st Place
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6.2Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.340.1%1st Place
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11.01SUNY Maritime College-0.370.0%1st Place
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10.42Fordham University-0.080.0%1st Place
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9.15Christopher Newport University0.370.0%1st Place
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8.13Columbia University0.630.0%1st Place
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14.07Washington College-2.160.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emily Doble | 23.0% | 20.3% | 14.5% | 12.8% | 10.5% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 3.2% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sophia Devling | 22.0% | 19.3% | 17.0% | 12.7% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 5.5% | 3.3% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Arrieta Angueira Salbidegoitia | 6.8% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 8.4% | 10.2% | 8.2% | 10.3% | 10.9% | 10.2% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 3.3% | 1.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Adra Ivancich | 8.3% | 9.1% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 10.3% | 10.3% | 8.3% | 11.1% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 4.3% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Marina Conde | 10.6% | 9.8% | 11.2% | 9.1% | 13.3% | 11.2% | 10.0% | 8.1% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Ava Farley | 5.0% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 10.2% | 11.5% | 9.7% | 11.4% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 3.9% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Lina Carper | 6.0% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 8.4% | 6.9% | 9.4% | 9.3% | 10.8% | 10.0% | 10.5% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 3.8% | 1.3% | 0.2% |
| Katherine Mason | 1.8% | 1.0% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 11.9% | 13.8% | 15.9% | 15.0% | 4.2% |
| Evelyn Walsh | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 8.2% | 11.1% | 16.0% | 30.5% | 14.7% |
| Deana Fedulova | 6.9% | 7.7% | 8.7% | 10.4% | 11.2% | 10.0% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 9.6% | 7.2% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Nicole Ostapowicz | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 7.1% | 10.7% | 13.5% | 18.3% | 17.2% | 7.6% |
| Anna Robertson | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 6.9% | 9.8% | 11.1% | 15.9% | 15.8% | 13.5% | 2.6% |
| Laura Smith | 2.6% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 8.1% | 12.9% | 12.8% | 11.7% | 11.9% | 5.8% | 0.8% |
| Elizabeth Frost | 3.4% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 9.7% | 10.5% | 12.0% | 9.1% | 6.9% | 2.4% | 0.3% |
| Nora Ciak | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 12.4% | 69.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.