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📊 Prediction Accuracy
53.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University2.36+2.50vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland0.97+5.12vs Predicted
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3George Washington University1.22+3.43vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.34+2.15vs Predicted
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5Old Dominion University1.63+0.41vs Predicted
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6U. S. Naval Academy1.19+0.57vs Predicted
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7University of Pennsylvania1.41-1.09vs Predicted
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8SUNY Maritime College-0.37+3.06vs Predicted
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9Fordham University0.10+0.80vs Predicted
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10Cornell University2.32-6.32vs Predicted
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11Christopher Newport University0.37-1.96vs Predicted
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12U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.15-1.31vs Predicted
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13Princeton University-0.92-0.63vs Predicted
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14Washington College-2.16+0.12vs Predicted
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15Columbia University0.63-6.85vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.5Georgetown University2.360.2%1st Place
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7.12St. Mary's College of Maryland0.970.0%1st Place
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6.43George Washington University1.220.1%1st Place
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6.15Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.340.1%1st Place
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5.41Old Dominion University1.630.1%1st Place
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6.57U. S. Naval Academy1.190.1%1st Place
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5.91University of Pennsylvania1.410.1%1st Place
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11.06SUNY Maritime College-0.370.0%1st Place
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9.8Fordham University0.100.0%1st Place
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3.68Cornell University2.320.2%1st Place
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9.04Christopher Newport University0.370.0%1st Place
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10.69U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.150.0%1st Place
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12.37Princeton University-0.920.0%1st Place
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14.12Washington College-2.160.0%1st Place
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8.15Columbia University0.630.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emily Doble | 23.2% | 20.9% | 13.3% | 13.4% | 9.1% | 7.7% | 5.7% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lina Carper | 4.9% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 8.6% | 10.0% | 8.1% | 9.3% | 8.3% | 10.7% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 3.7% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Arrieta Angueira Salbidegoitia | 7.4% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 9.7% | 7.6% | 10.4% | 9.6% | 11.2% | 8.9% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 4.2% | 1.9% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| Deana Fedulova | 7.7% | 8.6% | 9.9% | 8.2% | 11.2% | 8.2% | 9.1% | 9.5% | 9.6% | 7.9% | 5.4% | 3.0% | 1.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Marina Conde | 10.2% | 10.8% | 11.1% | 10.1% | 9.9% | 11.7% | 10.5% | 9.1% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Ava Farley | 5.5% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 10.2% | 9.5% | 11.3% | 10.6% | 8.7% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 4.1% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Adra Ivancich | 9.4% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 9.7% | 10.9% | 11.4% | 9.1% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Nicole Ostapowicz | 1.1% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 4.3% | 6.3% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 12.9% | 20.0% | 19.0% | 5.8% |
| Lauren Murray | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 8.7% | 11.2% | 11.5% | 16.0% | 11.7% | 8.9% | 2.3% |
| Sophia Devling | 19.6% | 18.0% | 18.2% | 12.3% | 11.4% | 7.1% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Laura Smith | 2.7% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 9.6% | 11.0% | 12.8% | 10.8% | 10.3% | 6.1% | 1.4% |
| Katherine Mason | 1.6% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 10.5% | 15.8% | 18.1% | 14.5% | 3.7% |
| Evelyn Walsh | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 5.7% | 9.4% | 16.5% | 32.6% | 17.3% |
| Nora Ciak | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 6.9% | 14.6% | 68.2% |
| Elizabeth Frost | 4.2% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 8.3% | 9.3% | 8.4% | 10.3% | 13.5% | 9.5% | 6.4% | 1.9% | 0.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.